Objective To analyze the roles of three scoring systems, i.e. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) Ⅱ, Ranson’s criteria, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), in predicting mortality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) admitted to intensive care unit (ICU), and explore the independent risk factors for mortality in SAP patients.Methods The electronic medical records of SAP patients who admitted to ICU of West China Hospital, Sichuan University between July 2014 and July 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Data of the first APACHE Ⅱ, Ranson’s criteria, SOFA score, duration of mechanical ventilation, the use of vasoactive drugs and renal replacement therapy, and outcomes were obtained. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the value of APACHE Ⅱ score, Ranson’s criteria, and SOFA score in predicting the prognosis of SAP. Logistic regression models were created to analyze the independent effects of factors on mortality.Results A total of 290 SAP patients hospitalized in ICU were screened retrospectively, from whom 60 patients were excluded, and 230 patients including 162 males and 68 females aged (51.1±13.7) years were finally included. The ICU mortality of the 230 patients with SAP was 27.8% (64/230), with 166 patients in the survival group and 64 patients in the death group. The areas under ROC curves of APACHE Ⅱ, Ranson’s criteria, APACHE Ⅱ combined with Ranson’s criteria, and SOFA score in predicting mortality in SAP patients admitted to ICU were 0.769, 0.741, 0.802, and 0.625, respectively. The result showed that APACHE Ⅱcombined with Ranson’s criteria was superior to any single scoring system in predicting ICU death of SAP patients. The result of logistic regression analysis showed that APACHE Ⅱ score [odds ratio (OR)=1.841, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.022, 2.651), P=0.002], Ranson’s criteria [OR=1.542, 95%CI (1.152, 2.053), P=0.004], glycemic lability index [OR=1.321, 95%CI (1.021, 1.862), P=0.008], the use of vasoactive drugs [OR=15.572, 95%CI (6.073, 39.899), P<0.001], and renal replacement therapy [OR=4.463, 95%CI (1.901, 10.512), P=0.001] contributed independently to the risk of mortality.Conclusions APACHE Ⅱ combined with Ranson’s criteria is better than SOFA score in the prediction of mortality in SAP patients admitted to ICU. APACHE Ⅱ score, Ranson’s criteria, glycemic lability index, the use of vasoactive drugs and renal replacement therapy contribute independently to the risk of ICU mortality in patients with SAP.

Citation： ZUO Yanyan, LI Yunwei, KANG Yan. Predictive value of three scoring systems in patients with severe acute pancreatitis. West China Medical Journal, 2019, 34(11): 1233-1238. doi: 10.7507/1002-0179.201909211 Copy