Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model in prediction of outpatient and emergency visits in a district-level public hospital_West China Medical Journal

Authors：

QIU Xuehan ¹ , PENG Di ² ,  YANG Cui ¹

1. Operation Management Department, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, P. R. China;
2. Operation Management Department, the First People’s Hospital of Shuangliu District, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, P. R. China;

Corresponding author：

YANG Cui, Email: yangcui@wchscu.cn

Keywords：

Outpatient and emergency visits; autoregressive integrated moving average model; prediction

DOI：

10.7507/1002-0179.202311076

Video：

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Objective To accurately predict the outpatient and emergency visits of a district-level public hospital based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, providing important basis for hospital budget planning and operational decisions. Methods The monthly outpatient and emergency visits of a public hospital in Shuangliu District, Chengdu City from January 2012 to November 2023 were collected, and R 4.3.1 software was used to establish an ARIMA model based on the data from January 2012 to December 2022. The outpatient and emergency visits from January to November 2023 were predicted and validated. Results Except for January and March 2023, every monthly number of predicted outpatient and emergency visits for 2023 matched the actual one relatively well. The average absolute percentage error for January to November 2023 was 8.504%. The actual total number of outpatient and emergency visits from January to November 2023 was 1441960, and the predicted value was 1417130 with a relative error of –1.722%. Conclusions ARIMA model can predict the outpatient and emergency visits of district-level hospitals relatively well. However, factors such as the high incidence of COVID-19 may affect the accuracy of short-term prediction.

Citation： QIU Xuehan, PENG Di, YANG Cui. Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model in prediction of outpatient and emergency visits in a district-level public hospital. West China Medical Journal, 2023, 38(12): 1807-1811. doi: 10.7507/1002-0179.202311076 Copy

1.	宫芳芳, 刘胜男. 新时期县(区)级医院高质量发展的实践与思考. 现代医院管理, 2023, 21(2): 55-57.
2.	刘磊. 医院门诊量季节变化与趋势分析. 中国病案, 2022, 23(9): 52-55.
3.	程莉. 县级公立医院预算管理工作中存在问题及对策. 质量与市场, 2023(11): 82-84.
4.	Sumitra ID, Basri I. Forecasting the number of outpatient patient visits using the ARIMA, SES and holt-winters meth-ods at XYZ Community Health Center. IOP Conf Ser: Mater Sci Eng, 2020(879): 012060.
5.	Lin Y, Wan C, Li S. Prediction of women and Children’s hospital outpatient numbers based on the autoregressive integrated moving average model. Heliyon, 2023, 9(4): e14845.
6.	唐路, 宋萍, 谢冰珏, 等. 基于 R 语言的 ARIMA 乘积季节模型对重庆某儿童医院门诊量的预测分析. 医学信息, 2021, 34(11): 19-22.
7.	李磊, 孙瑞华, 王蜜源. Arima-Elman 耦合模型在医院门诊量预测中的应用及评价. 中国病案, 2020, 21(11): 68-72.
8.	邱林. 应用 ARIMA 模型预测某三级甲等医院门诊量. 中国医院统计, 2018, 25(1): 77-79.
9.	潘欢弘, 朱蒙曼, 刘晓青. ARIMA 乘积季节模型在江西省手足口病发病预测中的应用. 现代预防医学, 2018, 45(1): 1-4, 7.
10.	牛岩, 郭超. 基于支持向量机的富平县大气蒸发量数据预测研究. 农业与技术, 2022, 42(14): 63-66.
11.	杨振昊, 张俊波, 杨晨星, 等. 基于 SARIMA 模型的我国水产品消费价格指数预测. 海洋湖沼通报, 2021, 43(2): 131-138.
12.	Quartey-Papafio TK, Liu S, Javed SA. Forecasting cocoa production of six major producers through ARIMA and grey models. Grey Syst, 2021, 11(3): 434-462.
13.	杨圆, 邹霞, 凌莉. 应用传播动力学模型模拟我国人口流动情况对耐多药结核病发病率的影响. 热带医学杂志, 2022, 22(7): 1001-1005.
14.	谢国艳. 县级公立医院全面预算管理问题研究——以 TZ 县人民医院为例. 老字号品牌营销, 2023(10): 64-66.
15.	李依恬, 乔富宇. ARIMA 模型在北京市西城区手足口病月发病率预测中的应用. 职业与健康, 2018, 34(7): 925-928.
16.	王晨, 郭倩, 周罗晶. ARIMA 模型与指数平滑法预测门诊量效果比较. 预防医学, 2018, 30(11): 1152-1155.
17.	邵靖靖. 中医院门急诊量 ARIMA 分析与对策研究. 中医药管理杂志, 2021, 29(18): 47-49.
18.	姜迪, 杨洋, 孔晓颖, 等. 时间序列分析方法在医院管理中的应用. 预防医学论坛, 2022, 28(2): 158-161.
19.	戴灵, 刘印, 康孟利, 等. 新冠疫情对儿科门急诊的影响及对策研究. 医院管理论坛, 2022, 39(2): 22-25.
20.	虞佩, 周帅, 成杰, 等. 面对激增的新型冠状病毒感染患者瑞金医院门急诊工作布局调整方案. 内科理论与实践, 2023, 18(1): 38-39.
21.	任佳乐, 郭璇, 许珊珊, 等. 2018—2021 年新疆某三级甲等医院急诊量变化趋势分析. 中国医院统计, 2023, 30(5): 391-395.

1. 宫芳芳, 刘胜男. 新时期县(区)级医院高质量发展的实践与思考. 现代医院管理, 2023, 21(2): 55-57.
2. 刘磊. 医院门诊量季节变化与趋势分析. 中国病案, 2022, 23(9): 52-55.
3. 程莉. 县级公立医院预算管理工作中存在问题及对策. 质量与市场, 2023(11): 82-84.
4. Sumitra ID, Basri I. Forecasting the number of outpatient patient visits using the ARIMA, SES and holt-winters meth-ods at XYZ Community Health Center. IOP Conf Ser: Mater Sci Eng, 2020(879): 012060.
5. Lin Y, Wan C, Li S. Prediction of women and Children’s hospital outpatient numbers based on the autoregressive integrated moving average model. Heliyon, 2023, 9(4): e14845.
6. 唐路, 宋萍, 谢冰珏, 等. 基于 R 语言的 ARIMA 乘积季节模型对重庆某儿童医院门诊量的预测分析. 医学信息, 2021, 34(11): 19-22.
7. 李磊, 孙瑞华, 王蜜源. Arima-Elman 耦合模型在医院门诊量预测中的应用及评价. 中国病案, 2020, 21(11): 68-72.
8. 邱林. 应用 ARIMA 模型预测某三级甲等医院门诊量. 中国医院统计, 2018, 25(1): 77-79.
9. 潘欢弘, 朱蒙曼, 刘晓青. ARIMA 乘积季节模型在江西省手足口病发病预测中的应用. 现代预防医学, 2018, 45(1): 1-4, 7.
10. 牛岩, 郭超. 基于支持向量机的富平县大气蒸发量数据预测研究. 农业与技术, 2022, 42(14): 63-66.
11. 杨振昊, 张俊波, 杨晨星, 等. 基于 SARIMA 模型的我国水产品消费价格指数预测. 海洋湖沼通报, 2021, 43(2): 131-138.
12. Quartey-Papafio TK, Liu S, Javed SA. Forecasting cocoa production of six major producers through ARIMA and grey models. Grey Syst, 2021, 11(3): 434-462.
13. 杨圆, 邹霞, 凌莉. 应用传播动力学模型模拟我国人口流动情况对耐多药结核病发病率的影响. 热带医学杂志, 2022, 22(7): 1001-1005.
14. 谢国艳. 县级公立医院全面预算管理问题研究——以 TZ 县人民医院为例. 老字号品牌营销, 2023(10): 64-66.
15. 李依恬, 乔富宇. ARIMA 模型在北京市西城区手足口病月发病率预测中的应用. 职业与健康, 2018, 34(7): 925-928.
16. 王晨, 郭倩, 周罗晶. ARIMA 模型与指数平滑法预测门诊量效果比较. 预防医学, 2018, 30(11): 1152-1155.
17. 邵靖靖. 中医院门急诊量 ARIMA 分析与对策研究. 中医药管理杂志, 2021, 29(18): 47-49.
18. 姜迪, 杨洋, 孔晓颖, 等. 时间序列分析方法在医院管理中的应用. 预防医学论坛, 2022, 28(2): 158-161.
19. 戴灵, 刘印, 康孟利, 等. 新冠疫情对儿科门急诊的影响及对策研究. 医院管理论坛, 2022, 39(2): 22-25.
20. 虞佩, 周帅, 成杰, 等. 面对激增的新型冠状病毒感染患者瑞金医院门急诊工作布局调整方案. 内科理论与实践, 2023, 18(1): 38-39.
21. 任佳乐, 郭璇, 许珊珊, 等. 2018—2021 年新疆某三级甲等医院急诊量变化趋势分析. 中国医院统计, 2023, 30(5): 391-395.

West China Medical Journal

Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model in prediction of outpatient and emergency visits in a district-level public hospital

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