Research Progress of Risk Prediction Models for Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting_Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery

Authors：

DINGYa-gang , QIXiao-ke ,  ZHAOYuan

Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, P. R. China;

Corresponding author：

ZHAOYuan, Email: drzhaoyuan@163.com

Keywords：

Coronary artery bypass grafting; Surgical risk evaluation; Surgical mortality

DOI：

10.7507/1007-4848.20160276

Video：

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Abstract Full text Figures/Tables Video References Cited by

Risk stratifications are valuable aids for stratifying patients by disease severity, driving informed clinical decisions, because they allow the selection of the most appropriate strategy of treatment based on the patient's individual characteristics. The clinical algorithms help patients and their families to get a better understanding of issues relevant to treatment strategies and subsequent risks as part of the process to obtain informed consent. The current risk stratifications of coronary artery bypass grafting included the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Score, the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, SinoSystem for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation. This review focuses on the progress of risk stratifications of coronary artery bypass grafting for patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Citation： DINGYa-gang, QIXiao-ke, ZHAOYuan. Research Progress of Risk Prediction Models for Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting. Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 2016, 23(12): 1177-1182. doi: 10.7507/1007-4848.20160276 Copy

1.	Capodanno D, Tamburino C. Integrating the Synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) score into practice: use, pitfalls, and new directions. Am Heart J, 2011, 161(3): 462-470.
2.	Parsonnet V, Dean D, Bernstein AD. A method of uniform stratifi-cation of risk for evaluating the results of surgery in acquired adult heart disease. Circulation, 1989, 79(6): I3-I12.
3.	Tu JV, Jaglal SB, Naylor CD. Multicenter validation of a risk index for mortality, intensive care unit stay, and overall hospital length of stay after cardiac surgery. Steering Committee of the Provincial Adult Cardiac Care Network of Ontario. Circulation, 1995, 91(3): 677-684.
4.	Higgins TL, Estafanous FG, Loop FD, et al. Stratification of morbi-dity and mortality outcome by preoperative risk factors in coronary artery bypass patients. A clinical severity score. JAMA, 1992, 267 (17): 2344-2348.
5.	Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 1--coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88(1 Suppl): S2-S22.
6.	Nashef SAM, Roques F, Michel P, et al. European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE). Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 16(1): 9-13.
7.	Zheng Z, Zhang L, Chinese Cardiovascular Surgery Registry. Chinese risk stratification scoring system for coronary artery bypass grafting. Zhonghua Xin Xue Guan Bing Za Zhi, 2010, 38(10): 901-904.
8.	Edwards FH, Grover FL, Shroyer AL, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database: current risk assess-ment. Ann Thorac Surg, 1997, 63(3): 903-908.
9.	Shroyer AL, Coombs LP, Peterson ED, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons: 30-day operative mortality and morbidity risk models. Ann Thorac Surg, 2003, 75(6): 1856-1864.
10.	Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 3——valve plus coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88(1 Suppl): S43-S62.
11.	Kirmani BH, Mazhar K, Fabri BM, et al. Comparison of the EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 risk tools. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2013, 44(6): 999-1005.
12.	Windecker S, Kolh P, Alfonso F, et al. 2014 ESC/EACTS Guidelines on myocardial revascularization: The Task Force on Myocardial Revascularization of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS)Developed with the special contribution of the European Association of Percutaneous Cardiovascular Interventions (EAPCI). Eur Heart J, 2014, 35(37): 2541-2619.
13.	Shih T, Paone G, Theurer PF, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database Version 2.73: More Is Better. Ann Thorac Surg, 2015, 100(2): 516-521.
14.	Roques F, Nashef SA, Michel P, et al. Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery: analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 15(6): 816-822.
15.	Roques F, Michel P, Goldstone AR, et al. The logistic EuroSCORE. Eur Heart J, 2003, 24(9): 881-882.
16.	Michel P, Roques F, Nashef SA, et al. Logistic or additive Euro-SCORE for high-risk patients? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2003, 23(5): 684-687.
17.	Graham I, Atar D, Borch Johnsen K, et al. European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: executive summary: Fourth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and Other Societies on Cardiovascular Disease Preven-tion in Clinical Practice (Constituted by representatives of nine societies and by invited experts). Eur Heart J, 2007, 28(19): 2375-2414.
18.	Nashef SA, Roques F, Sharples LD, et al. EuroSCORE II. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2012, 41(4): 734-745.
19.	Chalmers J, Pullan M, Fabri B, et al. Validation of EuroSCORE II in a modern cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2012, 43(4): 688-694.
20.	Biancari F, Vasques F, Mikkola R, et al. Validation of EuroSCORE Ⅱ in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2012, 93(6): 1930-1935.
21.	Grant SW, Hickey GL, Dimarakis I, et al. How does EuroSCORE II perform in UK cardiac surgery; an analysis of 23 740 patients from the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland National Database. Heart, 2012, 98(21): 1568-1572.
22.	Nishida T, Sonoda H, Oishi Y, et al. The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms. Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg, 2014, 18(4): 446-450.
23.	Yap CH, Reid C, Yii M, et al. Validation of the EuroSCORE model in Australia. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2006, 29(4): 441-446.
24.	Iyem, H. Evaluation of the reliability of the EuroSCORE risk analysis prediction in high-risk older patients undergoing CABG. Cardiovasc J Afr, 2009, 20(6): 340-343.
25.	Sergeant P, de Worm E, Meyns B. Single centre, single domain validation of the EuroSCORE on a consecutive sample of primary and repeat CABG. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2001, 20(6): 1176-1182.
26.	Parolari A, Pesce LL, Trezzi M, et al. Performance of EuroSCORE in CABG and off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting: single institution experience and meta-analysis. Eur Heart J, 2009, 30(3): 297-304.
27.	Kuwaki K, Inaba H, Yamamoto T, et al. Performance of the Euro-SCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Score in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis. J Cardio-vasc Surg (Torino), 2015, 56(3): 455-462.
28.	Zheng Z, Li Y, Zhang S, et al. The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study: how well does the EuroSCORE predict operative risk for Chinese population? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2009, 35(1): 54-58.
29.	中国心血管外科注册登记研究协作组. 非体外循环冠状动脉旁路移植术后早期死亡风险预测—SinoSCORE与EuroSCORE评分的对比. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2011, 27(2): 75-77.
30.	中国心血管外科注册登记研究协作组. SinoSCORE对老年心血管外科患者的手术风险预测作用. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2011, 27(2): 84-86.
31.	郭惠明, 吴若彬, 肖学钧, 等. SinoSCORE预测心血管外科手术病死率—广东心血管病研究所经验. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2011, 27(2): 78-80.
32.	钱永军, 张尔永, 安琪, 等. SinoSCORE对成人心脏手术后院内死亡风险的预测—中国成人心脏外科数据库华西医院数据报告. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2012, 19(4): 362-365.
33.	刘曦, 陈彧, 赵舟, 等. SinoSCORE对冠状动脉旁路移植术患者生活质量的预测价值. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2013, 20(6): 653-657.
34.	于泉, 王云, 顾继伟, 等 SinoSCORE评估冠状动脉旁路移植术后患者死亡风险的价值. 宁夏医科大学学报. 2013, 35(4): 412-414.
35.	白云鹏, 刘建实, 陈庆良, 等. SinoSCORE对单中心CABG患者术后早期病死率及并发症的预测效能分析. 天津医药, 2012, 40(11): 1114-1117.
36.	王崇, 韩林, 陆方林, 等. SinoSCORE预测瓣膜手术在院死亡风险—第二军医大学长海医院胸心外科经验. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2013, 29(4): 193-195.
37.	中国心血管外科注册登记研究协作组. SinoSCORE对手术风险的评估作用. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2011, 27(2): 67-70.
38.	中国心血管外科注册登记研究协作组. SinoSCORE预测瓣膜手术死亡风险. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2011, 27(2): 81-83.
39.	王崇, 韩林, 张冠鑫, 等. 心脏瓣膜手术在院死亡风险预测模型及评分标准的建立. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2011, 18(1): 2-10.
40.	江学成. 手术风险预测方法解读. 中国实用外科杂志, 2007, 27(9): 746-749.
41.	Ivanov J, Tu JV, Naylor CD. Ready-made, recalibrated, or Remode-led? Issues in the use of risk indexes for assessing mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Circulation, 1999, 99(16): 2098-2104.
42.	徐志云. 心血管手术风险预测研究与现状. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2011, 18(3): 187-188.
43.	连锋, 戴晨阳, 张文天, 等. SinoSCORE与EuroSCORE对不停跳冠状动脉旁路术后早期死亡预测评估比较. 上海交通大学学报(医学版), 2014, 2: 165-168.
44.	张蔚然, 邵永丰, 张杨杨, 等. SinoSCORE和EuroSCOREⅡ对老年冠状动脉旁路移植术患者死亡风险预测的价值. 江苏医药, 2014, 40(13): 1517-1519.
45.	张春晓, 许建屏, 葛翼鹏, 等. 不同心脏手术风险预测评分系统对中国冠状动脉旁路移植术后患者早期死亡的预测. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2011, 18(3): 194-198.

1. Capodanno D, Tamburino C. Integrating the Synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) score into practice: use, pitfalls, and new directions. Am Heart J, 2011, 161(3): 462-470.
2. Parsonnet V, Dean D, Bernstein AD. A method of uniform stratifi-cation of risk for evaluating the results of surgery in acquired adult heart disease. Circulation, 1989, 79(6): I3-I12.
3. Tu JV, Jaglal SB, Naylor CD. Multicenter validation of a risk index for mortality, intensive care unit stay, and overall hospital length of stay after cardiac surgery. Steering Committee of the Provincial Adult Cardiac Care Network of Ontario. Circulation, 1995, 91(3): 677-684.
4. Higgins TL, Estafanous FG, Loop FD, et al. Stratification of morbi-dity and mortality outcome by preoperative risk factors in coronary artery bypass patients. A clinical severity score. JAMA, 1992, 267 (17): 2344-2348.
5. Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 1--coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88(1 Suppl): S2-S22.
6. Nashef SAM, Roques F, Michel P, et al. European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE). Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 16(1): 9-13.
7. Zheng Z, Zhang L, Chinese Cardiovascular Surgery Registry. Chinese risk stratification scoring system for coronary artery bypass grafting. Zhonghua Xin Xue Guan Bing Za Zhi, 2010, 38(10): 901-904.
8. Edwards FH, Grover FL, Shroyer AL, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database: current risk assess-ment. Ann Thorac Surg, 1997, 63(3): 903-908.
9. Shroyer AL, Coombs LP, Peterson ED, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons: 30-day operative mortality and morbidity risk models. Ann Thorac Surg, 2003, 75(6): 1856-1864.
10. Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 3——valve plus coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2009, 88(1 Suppl): S43-S62.
11. Kirmani BH, Mazhar K, Fabri BM, et al. Comparison of the EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 risk tools. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2013, 44(6): 999-1005.
12. Windecker S, Kolh P, Alfonso F, et al. 2014 ESC/EACTS Guidelines on myocardial revascularization: The Task Force on Myocardial Revascularization of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS)Developed with the special contribution of the European Association of Percutaneous Cardiovascular Interventions (EAPCI). Eur Heart J, 2014, 35(37): 2541-2619.
13. Shih T, Paone G, Theurer PF, et al. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database Version 2.73: More Is Better. Ann Thorac Surg, 2015, 100(2): 516-521.
14. Roques F, Nashef SA, Michel P, et al. Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery: analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 1999, 15(6): 816-822.
15. Roques F, Michel P, Goldstone AR, et al. The logistic EuroSCORE. Eur Heart J, 2003, 24(9): 881-882.
16. Michel P, Roques F, Nashef SA, et al. Logistic or additive Euro-SCORE for high-risk patients? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2003, 23(5): 684-687.
17. Graham I, Atar D, Borch Johnsen K, et al. European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: executive summary: Fourth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and Other Societies on Cardiovascular Disease Preven-tion in Clinical Practice (Constituted by representatives of nine societies and by invited experts). Eur Heart J, 2007, 28(19): 2375-2414.
18. Nashef SA, Roques F, Sharples LD, et al. EuroSCORE II. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2012, 41(4): 734-745.
19. Chalmers J, Pullan M, Fabri B, et al. Validation of EuroSCORE II in a modern cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2012, 43(4): 688-694.
20. Biancari F, Vasques F, Mikkola R, et al. Validation of EuroSCORE Ⅱ in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery. Ann Thorac Surg, 2012, 93(6): 1930-1935.
21. Grant SW, Hickey GL, Dimarakis I, et al. How does EuroSCORE II perform in UK cardiac surgery; an analysis of 23 740 patients from the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland National Database. Heart, 2012, 98(21): 1568-1572.
22. Nishida T, Sonoda H, Oishi Y, et al. The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms. Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg, 2014, 18(4): 446-450.
23. Yap CH, Reid C, Yii M, et al. Validation of the EuroSCORE model in Australia. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2006, 29(4): 441-446.
24. Iyem, H. Evaluation of the reliability of the EuroSCORE risk analysis prediction in high-risk older patients undergoing CABG. Cardiovasc J Afr, 2009, 20(6): 340-343.
25. Sergeant P, de Worm E, Meyns B. Single centre, single domain validation of the EuroSCORE on a consecutive sample of primary and repeat CABG. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2001, 20(6): 1176-1182.
26. Parolari A, Pesce LL, Trezzi M, et al. Performance of EuroSCORE in CABG and off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting: single institution experience and meta-analysis. Eur Heart J, 2009, 30(3): 297-304.
27. Kuwaki K, Inaba H, Yamamoto T, et al. Performance of the Euro-SCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Score in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis. J Cardio-vasc Surg (Torino), 2015, 56(3): 455-462.
28. Zheng Z, Li Y, Zhang S, et al. The Chinese coronary artery bypass grafting registry study: how well does the EuroSCORE predict operative risk for Chinese population? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 2009, 35(1): 54-58.
29. 中国心血管外科注册登记研究协作组. 非体外循环冠状动脉旁路移植术后早期死亡风险预测—SinoSCORE与EuroSCORE评分的对比. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2011, 27(2): 75-77.
30. 中国心血管外科注册登记研究协作组. SinoSCORE对老年心血管外科患者的手术风险预测作用. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2011, 27(2): 84-86.
31. 郭惠明, 吴若彬, 肖学钧, 等. SinoSCORE预测心血管外科手术病死率—广东心血管病研究所经验. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2011, 27(2): 78-80.
32. 钱永军, 张尔永, 安琪, 等. SinoSCORE对成人心脏手术后院内死亡风险的预测—中国成人心脏外科数据库华西医院数据报告. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2012, 19(4): 362-365.
33. 刘曦, 陈彧, 赵舟, 等. SinoSCORE对冠状动脉旁路移植术患者生活质量的预测价值. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2013, 20(6): 653-657.
34. 于泉, 王云, 顾继伟, 等 SinoSCORE评估冠状动脉旁路移植术后患者死亡风险的价值. 宁夏医科大学学报. 2013, 35(4): 412-414.
35. 白云鹏, 刘建实, 陈庆良, 等. SinoSCORE对单中心CABG患者术后早期病死率及并发症的预测效能分析. 天津医药, 2012, 40(11): 1114-1117.
36. 王崇, 韩林, 陆方林, 等. SinoSCORE预测瓣膜手术在院死亡风险—第二军医大学长海医院胸心外科经验. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2013, 29(4): 193-195.
37. 中国心血管外科注册登记研究协作组. SinoSCORE对手术风险的评估作用. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2011, 27(2): 67-70.
38. 中国心血管外科注册登记研究协作组. SinoSCORE预测瓣膜手术死亡风险. 中华胸心血管外科杂志, 2011, 27(2): 81-83.
39. 王崇, 韩林, 张冠鑫, 等. 心脏瓣膜手术在院死亡风险预测模型及评分标准的建立. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2011, 18(1): 2-10.
40. 江学成. 手术风险预测方法解读. 中国实用外科杂志, 2007, 27(9): 746-749.
41. Ivanov J, Tu JV, Naylor CD. Ready-made, recalibrated, or Remode-led? Issues in the use of risk indexes for assessing mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Circulation, 1999, 99(16): 2098-2104.
42. 徐志云. 心血管手术风险预测研究与现状. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2011, 18(3): 187-188.
43. 连锋, 戴晨阳, 张文天, 等. SinoSCORE与EuroSCORE对不停跳冠状动脉旁路术后早期死亡预测评估比较. 上海交通大学学报(医学版), 2014, 2: 165-168.
44. 张蔚然, 邵永丰, 张杨杨, 等. SinoSCORE和EuroSCOREⅡ对老年冠状动脉旁路移植术患者死亡风险预测的价值. 江苏医药, 2014, 40(13): 1517-1519.
45. 张春晓, 许建屏, 葛翼鹏, 等. 不同心脏手术风险预测评分系统对中国冠状动脉旁路移植术后患者早期死亡的预测. 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志, 2011, 18(3): 194-198.

Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery

Research Progress of Risk Prediction Models for Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

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