HU Shoucai 1,2 , YANG Chenglong 1,2 , MA Haotian 1,2 , TAO Yancheng 1,2 , HU Gawei 1 , LI Qinxin 1
  • 1. Department of thoracic surgery, The 940th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force of Chinese People's Liberation Army, Lanzhou, 730000, P. R. China;
  • 2. The First Clinical Department of Gansu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, 730000, P. R. China;
HU Gawei, Email: 371694464@qq.com
High alcohol use; esophageal cancer; disease burden; trend; Joinpoint model; China
10.7507/1007-4848.202405053
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Objective  To integrate and analyse the burden of disease of oesophageal cancer due to alcohol consumption and the differences between males and females in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the trend of change in the burden of disease from 1990 to 2019, in order to improve its prevention and treatment strategies. Methods  Data on the burden of disease of oesophageal cancer due to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database and integrated and analysed, and the corresponding trends were analysed by the Joinpoint regression model using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The grey prediction model [GM (1, 1)] was used to predict the disease burden status of oesophageal cancer attributable to alcohol consumption in China from 2020 to 2029. Results  Oesophageal cancer attributable to tobacco, alcohol consumption, high BMI, and insufficient fruit and vegetable intake accounted for the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth largest number of oesophageal cancer deaths in 2019 in China, respectively. In terms of gender, the number of deaths and the standardised mortality rate of males in 2019 were 18.97 and 20.00 times higher than those of females, respectively; the number of DALYs and the standardised DALYs rate of females in 2019 were 33.08 and 24.78 times higher than those of females, suggesting that the disease burden of oesophageal cancer due to alcohol consumption is higher among females in China. From 1990 to 2019 Chinese oesophageal cancer due to alcohol consumption, the AAPC values for the number of deaths and the number of DALYs were 2.08% and 1.63%, respectively, which showed an increasing trend, and the change trend was statistically significant (P<0.05); the AAPC values for the standardised death rate and the rate of standardised DALYs were -0.92% and -1.23%, respectively, which showed a decreasing trend, and the change trend was statistically significant (P<0.05). The overall burden of disease for all age groups from 1990 to 2019 showed an increasing trend, with both their mortality and DALYs rates increasing with age, and the elderly population aged 55 years or older was the main group of the burden of disease. The grey prediction model showed that the overall standardised mortality rate and standardised DALYs rate declined to 2.94/100 000 and 67.94/100 000, respectively, by 2029, with a greater decline in females than in females. Conclusion  Although the burden of disease for alcohol-induced oesophageal cancer in China has decreased over the past 30 years, it is still low compared with the overall burden of disease for oesophageal cancer, and the burden of disease for females is much higher than that for females. Focusing on prevention and treatment for males and the elderly remains a major problem for drinking-induced oesophageal cancer in China.