• Research Center for Medicine and Social Development, Innovation Center for Social Risk Governance in Health, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China;
JIANGYi, Email: jiangyilaoshi@163.com
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Objective To evaluate the effect of rural alone-two-child policy (RAC policy) on zero population growth, high sex ratio at birth (SRB), and aging population in China. Methods Rural areas of cities which implement the RAC policy were included. Data from the fifth and the sixth population censes were used to analyze the variation of the total fertility rate (TFR), SRB, and the number of teenagers of every household (NTH) in context of different social and economic levels. Results The implementation of RAC policy in rural areas with middle and upper social economic levels showed a long-term effect of increasing the TFR and decreasing the SRB. The implementation of rural girl policy mixed with RAC policy in areas with middle social economic level showed a long-term effect of decreasing the TFR and increasing the SRB; but the long-term effect in areas with low social economic level was uncertain. The NTHs were decreased in all included areas. According to the urban and rural birth preference, we made inferences that the implementation of alone-two-child policy in cities could result in the increase of TFR and the decrease of SRB. Conclusion The long-term effect of RAC policy implemented in rural areas with middle social economic level could solve the problems of zero population growth and the high SRB, but the long-term effect of mixed policy implemented in rural areas with middle social economic level may aggravate the two problems above. The RAC policy cannot solve the aging population problem in rural area.

Citation: LUJun-jia, JIANGYi, WANGYang, PENGBin, LIUYa-lan, WANGTing-ting. The Long-term Impact of Chinese “Rural Alone Two Children” Policy on Demographic Characters. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2016, 16(4): 460-465. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.20160070 Copy

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