The survival analysis applied in calculation of markov model transition probability in pharmaceutical evaluation_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

ZHOU Ting ,  MA Aixia

School of International Pharmacuetical Business, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, 211198, P.R.China;

Corresponding author：

MA Aixia, Email: aixiama73@sina.com

Keywords：

Survival analysis; Pharmacoeconomics; Markov model; Transition probability; Gastric cancer

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.201801088

Video：

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Markov model is one of the decision analysis models, which is widely used in pharmacoeconomic evaluation studies. In terms of dealing with changes of disease risks during different times, the transition probabilities among different Markov health states becomes hard to calculate. Nevertheless, survival analysis is an available resolution. In this paper, we introduced how to apply survival analysis in calculation of transition probability in time-dependent model based on cumulative probability with a case analysis on advanced gastric cancer Markov model, and provide more information for researchers to build models.

Citation： ZHOU Ting, MA Aixia. The survival analysis applied in calculation of markov model transition probability in pharmaceutical evaluation. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2018, 18(10): 1129-1134. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.201801088 Copy

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1. Berger ML, Bingefors K, Hedblom EC, et al. Health care cost, quality, and outcomes. ISPOR book of terms. ISPOR, 2003.
2. 胡善联. 药物经济学. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2009: 1-200.
3. Sculpher MJ, Claxton K, Drummond M, et al. Whither trial-based economic evaluation for health care decision making? Health Econ, 2010, 15(7): 677-687.
4. Petrou S, Trinder J, Brocklehurst P, et al. Economic evaluation of alternative management methods of first-trimester miscarriage based on results from the MIST trial. BJOG, 2010, 113(8): 879-889.
5. van Dongen JM, van Wier MF, Tompa E, et al. Trial-based economic evaluations in occupational health: principles, methods, and recommendations. J Occp Envron Med, 2014, 56(6): 563-572.
6. Oostenbrink JB, Rutten-van Mölken MP, Monz BU, et al. Probabilistic Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of bronchodilator therapy in COPD patients in different countries. Value Health, 2010, 8(1): 32-46.
7. Zachariah JP, Samnaliev M. Echo-based screening of rheumatic heart disease in children: a cost-effectiveness Markov model. J Med Econ, 2015, 18(6): 410-419.
8. Samuelson EM, Odum SM, Fleischli JE. The cost-effectiveness of using platelet-rich plasma during rotator cuff repair: a markov model analysis. Arthroscopy, 2016, 32(7): 1237-1244.
9. Guerin P, Bourguignon S, Jamet N, et al. MitraClip therapy in mitral regurgitation: a Markov model for the cost-effectiveness of a new therapeutic option. J Med Econ, 2016, 19(7): 696-701.
10. Birkeland KI, Home PD, Wendisch U, et al. Insulin degludec in type 1 diabetes: a randomized controlled trial of a new-generation ultra-long-acting insulin compared with insulin glargine. Diabetes Care, 2011, 34(3): 661-665.
11. Heller SR, Colagiuri S, Vaaler S, et al. Hypoglycaemia with insulin aspart: a double-blind, randomised, crossover trial in subjects with Type1 diabetes. Diabet Med, 2010, 21(7): 769-775.
12. 陈永法, 韩洪娜. 达比加群和利伐沙班及华法林预防心房颤动并发脑卒中的经济学评价. 中国新药杂志, 2016, (11): 1216-1224.
13. 郭婉婕, 官海静, 刘国恩, 等. 蒽环类药物联用右雷佐生治疗乳腺癌的药物经济学评价. 中国卫生经济, 2017, 36(7): 75-79.
14. 刘国恩. 中国药物经济学评价指南及导读: 2015 版. 科学出版社, 2015: 1-50.
15. Beck JR, Pauker SG. The Markov process in medical prognosis. Med Decis Making, 1983, 3(4): 419-458.
16. Briggs AH, Claxton K, Sculpher MJ. Decision modelling for health economic evaluation. New York: Oxford University Press, 2006.
17. Carroll KJ. On the use and utility of the Weibull model in the analysis of survival data. Controlled Clin Trials, 2003, 24(6): 682-701.
18. Collett D. Modelling survival data in medical research. CRC press, 2015.
19. 周挺, 马爱霞, 付露阳. 药物经济学评价 Markov 模型中转移概率计算的探讨. 中国卫生经济, 2017, 36(12): 40-42.
20. Bang YJ, Van CE, Feyereislova A, et al. Trastuzumab in combination with chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone for treatment of HER2-positive advanced gastric or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer (ToGA): a phase 3, open-label, randomised controlled trial. Lancet, 2010, 376(9742): 687-697.
21. World Health Organization. Country statistics. Available at: http://www.who.int/countries/chn/en/.

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