Advance and the status quo of the research on applications of prognostic tools in patients with advanced cancer_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

YANG Junting ^1,2 , DAI Wei ³ ,  YIN Shiquan ⁴ ,  LIU Yuehua ^1,5

1. China National Health Development Research Center, Beijing 100191, P.R.China;
2. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing 100191, P.R.China;
3. Health Insurance Administration Bureau of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070, P.R.China;
4. Medical Service Department, National Cancer Center; National Clinical Research Center for Cancer; Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100191, P.R.China;
5. National Center for Drug and Technology Assessment, Beijing 100191, P.R.China;

Corresponding author：

YIN Shiquan, Email: yinshiquan@tsinghua.org.cn; LIU Yuehua, Email: liu_yuehua@163.com

Keywords：

Advanced cancer; Survival prediction; Prognostic factor

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.202004004

Video：

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Survival prognosis in patients with terminal cancer plays an important role in clinical decision-making, policy formulation, and end-stage patient with relatives. To date, foreign researchers have developed multiple survival prediction models based on patient clinical performance, biomarkers and other indicators, along with a large number of studies which have been externally verified, including Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP), Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score (D-PaP), and Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI), etc. China's research on this topic remains in the primary stage. Therefore, this article reviews the prognostic factors of terminal cancer and survival prediction models as well as applications, in order to provide references for the subsequent construction of survival prediction models for patients with terminal cancer in line with Chinese characteristics.

Citation： YANG Junting, DAI Wei, YIN Shiquan, LIU Yuehua. Advance and the status quo of the research on applications of prognostic tools in patients with advanced cancer. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2021, 21(1): 8-14. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.202004004 Copy

1.	Glare P, Sinclair C, Downing M, et al. Predicting survival in patients with advanced disease. Eur J Cancer, 2008, 44(8): 1146-1156.
2.	Han PK, Dieckmann NF, Holt C, et al. Factors affecting physicians' intentions to communicate personalized prognostic information to cancer patients at the end of life: an experimental vignette study. Med Decis Making, 2016, 36(6): 703-713.
3.	Maltoni M, Caraceni A, Brunelli C, et al. Prognostic factors in advanced cancer patients: evidence-based clinical recommendations-a study by the Steering Committee of the European Association for Palliative Care. J Clin Oncol, 2005, 23(25): 6240-6248.
4.	Abstracts of the MASCC/ISOO Annual Meeting 2018. Support Care Cancer, 2018: 339-364.
5.	Glare P, Virik K, Jones M, et al. A systematic review of physicians' survival predictions in terminally ill cancer patients. BMJ, 2003, 327(7408): 195-198.
6.	Suh SY, Choi YS, Shim JY, et al. Construction of a new, objective prognostic score for terminally ill cancer patients: a multicenter study. Support Care Cancer, 2010, 18(2): 151-157.
7.	Pirovano M, Maltoni M, Nanni O, et al. A new palliative prognostic score: a first step for the staging of terminally ill cancer patients. Italian Multicenter and Study Group on Palliative Care. J Pain Symptom Manage, 1999, 17(4): 231-239.
8.	Chen YT, Ho CT, Hsu HS, et al. Objective palliative prognostic score among patients with advanced cancer. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2015, 49(4): 690-696.
9.	Anderson F, Downing GM, Hill J, et al. Palliative performance scale (PPS): a new tool. J Palliat Care, 1996, 12(1): 5-11.
10.	Morita T, Tsunoda J, Inoue S, et al. The Palliative Prognostic Index: a scoring system for survival prediction of terminally ill cancer patients. Support Care Cancer, 1999, 7(3): 128-133.
11.	Chuang RB, Hu WY, Chiu TY, et al. Prediction of survival in terminal cancer patients in Taiwan: constructing a prognostic scale. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2004, 28(2): 115-122.
12.	Lingjun Z, Jing C, Jian L, et al. Prediction of survival time in advanced cancer: a prognostic scale for Chinese patients. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2009, 38(4): 578-586.
13.	Llobera J, Esteva M, Rifà J, et al. Terminal cancer. duration and prediction of survival time. Eur J Cancer, 2000, 36(16): 2036-2043.
14.	Glare P. Clinical predictors of survival in advanced cancer. J Support Oncol, 2005, 3(5): 331-339.
15.	Dolan RD, McSorley ST, Horgan PG, et al. The role of the systemic inflammatory response in predicting outcomes in patients with advanced inoperable cancer: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Crit Rev Oncol Hematol, 2017, 116: 134-146.
16.	Tsimberidou AM, Hong DS, Wheler JJ, et al. Long-term overall survival and prognostic score predicting survival: the IMPACT study in precision medicine. J Hematol Oncol, 2019, 12(1): 145.
17.	Scarpi E, Maltoni M, Miceli R, et al. Survival prediction for terminally ill cancer patients: revision of the palliative prognostic score with incorporation of delirium. Oncologist, 2011, 16(12): 1793-1799.
18.	Geissbühler P, Mermillod B, Rapin CH. Elevated serum vitamin B12 levels associated with CRP as a predictive factor of mortality in palliative care cancer patients: a prospective study over five years. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2000, 20(2): 93-103.
19.	Yamada T, Morita T, Maeda I, et al. A prospective, multicenter cohort study to validate a simple performance status-based survival prediction system for oncologists. Cancer, 2017, 123(8): 1442-1452.
20.	Ho F, Lau F, Downing MG, et al. A reliability and validity study of the Palliative Performance Scale. BMC Palliat Care, 2008, 7: 10.
21.	Baik D, Russell D, Jordan L, et al. Using the palliative performance scale to estimate survival for patients at the end of life: a systematic review of the literature. J Palliat Med, 2018, 21(11): 1651-1661.
22.	Glare PA, Eychmueller S, McMahon P. Diagnostic accuracy of the palliative prognostic score in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer. J Clin Oncol, 2004, 22(23): 4823-4828.
23.	Sonoda H, Yamaguchi T, Matsumoto M, et al. Validation of the palliative prognostic index and palliative prognostic score in a palliative care consultation team setting for patients with advanced cancers in an acute care hospital in Japan. Am J Hosp Palliat Care, 2014, 31(7): 730-734.
24.	Hui D, Park M, Liu D, et al. Clinician prediction of survival versus the palliative prognostic score: which approach is more accurate? Eur J Cancer, 2016, 64: 89-95.
25.	Kelly L, White S, Stone PC. The B12/CRP index as a simple prognostic indicator in patients with advanced cancer: a confirmatory study. Ann Oncol, 2007, 18(8): 1395-1399.
26.	Tavares F. Is the B12/CRP index more accurate than you at predicting life expectancy in advanced cancer patients? J Pain Symptom Manage, 2010, 40(1): e12-e13.
27.	Bertsimas D, Dunn J, Pawlowski C, et al. Applied informatics decision support tool for mortality predictions in patients with cancer. JCO Clin Cancer Inform, 2018, 2: 1-11.
28.	Alshemmari S, Ezzat H, Samir Z, et al. The palliative prognostic index for the prediction of survival and in-hospital mortality of patients with advanced cancer in Kuwait. J Palliat Med, 2012, 15(2): 200-204.
29.	Arai Y, Okajima Y, Kotani K, et al. Prognostication based on the change in the palliative prognostic index for patients with terminal cancer. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2014, 47(4): 742-747.
30.	Cheng WH, Kao CY, Hung YS, et al. Validation of a palliative prognostic index to predict life expectancy for terminally ill cancer patients in a hospice consultation setting in Taiwan. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 2012, 13(6): 2861-2866.
31.	Liu Y, Su L, Wang Y, et al. The application of the palliative prognostic index in predicting the life expectancy of patients in palliative care: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Aging Clin Exp Res, 2018, 30(12): 1417-1428.
32.	Yoon SJ, Suh SY, Lee YJ, et al. Prospective validation of objective prognostic score for advanced cancer inpatients in South Korea: A multicenter study. J Palliat Med, 2017, 20(1): 65-68.
33.	Jho HJ, Suh SY, Yoon SJ, et al. Prospective validation of the objective prognostic score for advanced cancer patients in diverse palliative settings. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2016, 52(3): 420-427.
34.	Allard P, Dionne A, Potvin D. Factors associated with length of survival among 1 081 terminally ill cancer patients. J Palliat Care, 1995, 11(3): 20-24.

1. Glare P, Sinclair C, Downing M, et al. Predicting survival in patients with advanced disease. Eur J Cancer, 2008, 44(8): 1146-1156.
2. Han PK, Dieckmann NF, Holt C, et al. Factors affecting physicians' intentions to communicate personalized prognostic information to cancer patients at the end of life: an experimental vignette study. Med Decis Making, 2016, 36(6): 703-713.
3. Maltoni M, Caraceni A, Brunelli C, et al. Prognostic factors in advanced cancer patients: evidence-based clinical recommendations-a study by the Steering Committee of the European Association for Palliative Care. J Clin Oncol, 2005, 23(25): 6240-6248.
4. Abstracts of the MASCC/ISOO Annual Meeting 2018. Support Care Cancer, 2018: 339-364.
5. Glare P, Virik K, Jones M, et al. A systematic review of physicians' survival predictions in terminally ill cancer patients. BMJ, 2003, 327(7408): 195-198.
6. Suh SY, Choi YS, Shim JY, et al. Construction of a new, objective prognostic score for terminally ill cancer patients: a multicenter study. Support Care Cancer, 2010, 18(2): 151-157.
7. Pirovano M, Maltoni M, Nanni O, et al. A new palliative prognostic score: a first step for the staging of terminally ill cancer patients. Italian Multicenter and Study Group on Palliative Care. J Pain Symptom Manage, 1999, 17(4): 231-239.
8. Chen YT, Ho CT, Hsu HS, et al. Objective palliative prognostic score among patients with advanced cancer. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2015, 49(4): 690-696.
9. Anderson F, Downing GM, Hill J, et al. Palliative performance scale (PPS): a new tool. J Palliat Care, 1996, 12(1): 5-11.
10. Morita T, Tsunoda J, Inoue S, et al. The Palliative Prognostic Index: a scoring system for survival prediction of terminally ill cancer patients. Support Care Cancer, 1999, 7(3): 128-133.
11. Chuang RB, Hu WY, Chiu TY, et al. Prediction of survival in terminal cancer patients in Taiwan: constructing a prognostic scale. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2004, 28(2): 115-122.
12. Lingjun Z, Jing C, Jian L, et al. Prediction of survival time in advanced cancer: a prognostic scale for Chinese patients. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2009, 38(4): 578-586.
13. Llobera J, Esteva M, Rifà J, et al. Terminal cancer. duration and prediction of survival time. Eur J Cancer, 2000, 36(16): 2036-2043.
14. Glare P. Clinical predictors of survival in advanced cancer. J Support Oncol, 2005, 3(5): 331-339.
15. Dolan RD, McSorley ST, Horgan PG, et al. The role of the systemic inflammatory response in predicting outcomes in patients with advanced inoperable cancer: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Crit Rev Oncol Hematol, 2017, 116: 134-146.
16. Tsimberidou AM, Hong DS, Wheler JJ, et al. Long-term overall survival and prognostic score predicting survival: the IMPACT study in precision medicine. J Hematol Oncol, 2019, 12(1): 145.
17. Scarpi E, Maltoni M, Miceli R, et al. Survival prediction for terminally ill cancer patients: revision of the palliative prognostic score with incorporation of delirium. Oncologist, 2011, 16(12): 1793-1799.
18. Geissbühler P, Mermillod B, Rapin CH. Elevated serum vitamin B12 levels associated with CRP as a predictive factor of mortality in palliative care cancer patients: a prospective study over five years. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2000, 20(2): 93-103.
19. Yamada T, Morita T, Maeda I, et al. A prospective, multicenter cohort study to validate a simple performance status-based survival prediction system for oncologists. Cancer, 2017, 123(8): 1442-1452.
20. Ho F, Lau F, Downing MG, et al. A reliability and validity study of the Palliative Performance Scale. BMC Palliat Care, 2008, 7: 10.
21. Baik D, Russell D, Jordan L, et al. Using the palliative performance scale to estimate survival for patients at the end of life: a systematic review of the literature. J Palliat Med, 2018, 21(11): 1651-1661.
22. Glare PA, Eychmueller S, McMahon P. Diagnostic accuracy of the palliative prognostic score in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer. J Clin Oncol, 2004, 22(23): 4823-4828.
23. Sonoda H, Yamaguchi T, Matsumoto M, et al. Validation of the palliative prognostic index and palliative prognostic score in a palliative care consultation team setting for patients with advanced cancers in an acute care hospital in Japan. Am J Hosp Palliat Care, 2014, 31(7): 730-734.
24. Hui D, Park M, Liu D, et al. Clinician prediction of survival versus the palliative prognostic score: which approach is more accurate? Eur J Cancer, 2016, 64: 89-95.
25. Kelly L, White S, Stone PC. The B12/CRP index as a simple prognostic indicator in patients with advanced cancer: a confirmatory study. Ann Oncol, 2007, 18(8): 1395-1399.
26. Tavares F. Is the B12/CRP index more accurate than you at predicting life expectancy in advanced cancer patients? J Pain Symptom Manage, 2010, 40(1): e12-e13.
27. Bertsimas D, Dunn J, Pawlowski C, et al. Applied informatics decision support tool for mortality predictions in patients with cancer. JCO Clin Cancer Inform, 2018, 2: 1-11.
28. Alshemmari S, Ezzat H, Samir Z, et al. The palliative prognostic index for the prediction of survival and in-hospital mortality of patients with advanced cancer in Kuwait. J Palliat Med, 2012, 15(2): 200-204.
29. Arai Y, Okajima Y, Kotani K, et al. Prognostication based on the change in the palliative prognostic index for patients with terminal cancer. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2014, 47(4): 742-747.
30. Cheng WH, Kao CY, Hung YS, et al. Validation of a palliative prognostic index to predict life expectancy for terminally ill cancer patients in a hospice consultation setting in Taiwan. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 2012, 13(6): 2861-2866.
31. Liu Y, Su L, Wang Y, et al. The application of the palliative prognostic index in predicting the life expectancy of patients in palliative care: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Aging Clin Exp Res, 2018, 30(12): 1417-1428.
32. Yoon SJ, Suh SY, Lee YJ, et al. Prospective validation of objective prognostic score for advanced cancer inpatients in South Korea: A multicenter study. J Palliat Med, 2017, 20(1): 65-68.
33. Jho HJ, Suh SY, Yoon SJ, et al. Prospective validation of the objective prognostic score for advanced cancer patients in diverse palliative settings. J Pain Symptom Manage, 2016, 52(3): 420-427.
34. Allard P, Dionne A, Potvin D. Factors associated with length of survival among 1 081 terminally ill cancer patients. J Palliat Care, 1995, 11(3): 20-24.

Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Advance and the status quo of the research on applications of prognostic tools in patients with advanced cancer

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