Analysis and model prediction of the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

WANG Zhe ^1,2 , LI Na ^1,2 , BAO Yunli ^1,2 , TANG Hairu ^1,2 , ZHENG Ying ¹ ,  YU Xiaohui ¹

1. Department of Gastroenterology, the 940th Hospital of Joint Service Logistics Support Force of Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;
2. The First Clinical Medical College, Gansu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;

Corresponding author：

YU Xiaohui, Email: yuxiaohui528@126.com

Keywords：

Digestive diseases; Smoking; Burden of disease; Prediction; Disease prevention

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.202305138

Video：

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Objective To analyze the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019 and forecast its change in the next 10 years. Methods The Global Burden of Disease database 2019 was used to analyze the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the time variation trend. A time series model was used to predict the burden of digestive diseases attributable to smoking over the next 10 years. Results In 2019, there were 12 900 deaths from digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China, with a DALY of 398 600 years, a crude death rate of 0.91/100 000 and a crude DALY rate of 28.02/100 000. The attributed standardized mortality rate was 0.69 per 100 000, and the standardized DALY rate was 19.79 per 100 000, which was higher than the global level. In 2019, the standardized mortality rate and DALY rate of males were higher than those of females (1.48/ 100 000 vs. 0.11/ 100 000, 38.42/ 100 000 vs. 293/100 000), and the standardized rates of males and females showed a downward trend over time. In 2019, both mortality and DALY rates from digestive diseases attributed to smoking increased with age. ARIMA predicts that over the next 10 years, the burden of disease in the digestive system caused by smoking will decrease significantly. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking showed a decreasing trend in China, and the problem of disease burden is more serious in men and the elderly population. A series of effective measures should be taken to reduce the smoking rate in key groups. The burden of digestive diseases caused by smoking will be significantly reduced in the next 10 years.

Citation： WANG Zhe, LI Na, BAO Yunli, TANG Hairu, ZHENG Ying, YU Xiaohui. Analysis and model prediction of the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2023, 23(11): 1247-1252. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.202305138 Copy

1.	GBD 2019 Tobacco Collaborators. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet, 2021, 397(10292): 2337-2360.
2.	Chen Z, Peto R, Zhou M, et al. Contrasting male and female trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in China: evidence from successive nationwide prospective cohort studies. Lancet, 2015, 386(10002): 1447-1456.
3.	Wang YJ, Li ZX, Gu HQ, et al. China Stroke Statistics: an update on the 2019 report from the National Center for Healthcare Quality Management in Neurological Diseases, China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, the Chinese Stroke Association, National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Institute for Global Neuroscience and Stroke Collaborations. Stroke Vasc Neurol, 2022, 7(5): 415-450.
4.	Chan KH, Wright N, Xiao D, et al. Tobacco smoking and risks of more than 470 diseases in China: a prospective cohort study. Lancet Public Health, 2022, 7(12): 1014-1026.
5.	Piovani D, Danese S, Peyrin-Biroulet L, et al. Environmental risk factors for inflammatory bowel diseases: an umbrella review of meta-analyses. Gastroenterology, 2019, 157(3): 647-659.
6.	McGee EE, Jackson SS, Petrick JL, et al. Smoking, alcohol, and biliary tract cancer risk: a pooling project of 26 prospective studies. J Natl Cancer Inst, 2019, 111(12): 1263-1278.
7.	Bai X, Wei H, Liu W, et al. Cigarette smoke promotes colorectal cancer through modulation of gut microbiota and related metabolites. Gut, 2022, 71(12): 2439-2450.
8.	Zhang H, Yu H, Ren D, et al. CBX3 regulated by YBX1 promotes smoking-induced pancreatic cancer progression via inhibiting SMURF2 expression. Int J Biol Sci, 2022, 18(8): 3484-3497.
9.	GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 2018, 392(10159): 1923-1994.
10.	NCD Countdown 2030 collaborators. NCD Countdown 2030: pathways to achieving Sustainable Development Goal target 3. 4. Lancet, 2020, 396(10255): 918-934.
11.	Wen H, Xie C, Wang F, et al. Trends in disease burden attributable to tobacco in China, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Front Public Health, 2020, 8: 237.
12.	GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborators. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1160-1203.
13.	GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1204-1222.
14.	GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1223-1249.
15.	GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 2018, 392(10159): 1736-1788.
16.	陈静静, 田学斌. 1990—2019年全球HIV/AIDS疾病负担及归因危险因素分析. 现代预防医学, 2023, 50(6): 993-1002.
17.	Dong Y, Kang H, Peng R, et al. Global, regional, and national burden of low bone mineral density from 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne), 2022, 13: 870905.
18.	曾四清, 李艳, 刘珺, 等. 两组序列数据趋势变化特征对比分析的Joinpoint回归模型方法及应用. 中国卫生统计, 2021, 38(2): 307-311.
19.	杨丽, 彭瑞, 叶晓雯. 1990—2019年中国白血病归因于各类危险因素的疾病负担分析与模型预测. 现代预防医学, 2023, 50(2): 205-209+256.
20.	Jackson SS, Pfeiffer RM, Gabbi C, et al. Menopausal hormone therapy and risk of biliary tract cancers. Hepatology, 2022, 75(2): 309-321.
21.	Peduzzi G, Archibugi L, Katzke V, et al. Common variability in oestrogen-related genes and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma risk in women. Sci Rep, 2022, 12(1): 18100.
22.	Sun J, Qiao Y, Zhao M, et al. Global, regional, and national burden of cardiovascular diseases in youths and young adults aged 15-39 years in 204 countries/territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. BMC Med, 2023, 21(1): 222.
23.	Tian W, Zhu G, Xiao W, et al. Stroke burden and attributable risk factors in China, 1990-2019. Front Neurol. 2023, 14(5): 1193056.
24.	梁琼, 张晓波, 宋雪茜. 中国老年人口健康水平空间分布及影响因素. 中国老年学杂志, 2022, 42(8): 1994-2000.
25.	Lugo A, Peveri G, Gallus S. Should we consider gallbladder cancer a new smoking-related cancer. A comprehensive meta-analysis focused on dose-response relationships. Int J Cancer, 2020, 146(12): 3304-3311.
26.	Wijarnpreecha K, Werlang M, Panjawatanan P, et al. Association between smoking and risk of primary biliary cholangitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Gastrointestin Liver Dis, 2019, 28: 197-203.
27.	Phua ZJ, MacInnis RJ, Jayasekara H. Cigarette smoking and risk of second primary cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Cancer Epidemiol, 2022, 78: 102160.
28.	Collatuzzo G, Alicandro G, Bertuccio P, et al. Peptic ulcer as mediator of the association between risk of gastric cancer and socioeconomic status, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking and salt intake. J Epidemiol Community Health, 2022.

1. GBD 2019 Tobacco Collaborators. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet, 2021, 397(10292): 2337-2360.
2. Chen Z, Peto R, Zhou M, et al. Contrasting male and female trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in China: evidence from successive nationwide prospective cohort studies. Lancet, 2015, 386(10002): 1447-1456.
3. Wang YJ, Li ZX, Gu HQ, et al. China Stroke Statistics: an update on the 2019 report from the National Center for Healthcare Quality Management in Neurological Diseases, China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, the Chinese Stroke Association, National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Institute for Global Neuroscience and Stroke Collaborations. Stroke Vasc Neurol, 2022, 7(5): 415-450.
4. Chan KH, Wright N, Xiao D, et al. Tobacco smoking and risks of more than 470 diseases in China: a prospective cohort study. Lancet Public Health, 2022, 7(12): 1014-1026.
5. Piovani D, Danese S, Peyrin-Biroulet L, et al. Environmental risk factors for inflammatory bowel diseases: an umbrella review of meta-analyses. Gastroenterology, 2019, 157(3): 647-659.
6. McGee EE, Jackson SS, Petrick JL, et al. Smoking, alcohol, and biliary tract cancer risk: a pooling project of 26 prospective studies. J Natl Cancer Inst, 2019, 111(12): 1263-1278.
7. Bai X, Wei H, Liu W, et al. Cigarette smoke promotes colorectal cancer through modulation of gut microbiota and related metabolites. Gut, 2022, 71(12): 2439-2450.
8. Zhang H, Yu H, Ren D, et al. CBX3 regulated by YBX1 promotes smoking-induced pancreatic cancer progression via inhibiting SMURF2 expression. Int J Biol Sci, 2022, 18(8): 3484-3497.
9. GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 2018, 392(10159): 1923-1994.
10. NCD Countdown 2030 collaborators. NCD Countdown 2030: pathways to achieving Sustainable Development Goal target 3. 4. Lancet, 2020, 396(10255): 918-934.
11. Wen H, Xie C, Wang F, et al. Trends in disease burden attributable to tobacco in China, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Front Public Health, 2020, 8: 237.
12. GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborators. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1160-1203.
13. GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1204-1222.
14. GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1223-1249.
15. GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 2018, 392(10159): 1736-1788.
16. 陈静静, 田学斌. 1990—2019年全球HIV/AIDS疾病负担及归因危险因素分析. 现代预防医学, 2023, 50(6): 993-1002.
17. Dong Y, Kang H, Peng R, et al. Global, regional, and national burden of low bone mineral density from 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne), 2022, 13: 870905.
18. 曾四清, 李艳, 刘珺, 等. 两组序列数据趋势变化特征对比分析的Joinpoint回归模型方法及应用. 中国卫生统计, 2021, 38(2): 307-311.
19. 杨丽, 彭瑞, 叶晓雯. 1990—2019年中国白血病归因于各类危险因素的疾病负担分析与模型预测. 现代预防医学, 2023, 50(2): 205-209+256.
20. Jackson SS, Pfeiffer RM, Gabbi C, et al. Menopausal hormone therapy and risk of biliary tract cancers. Hepatology, 2022, 75(2): 309-321.
21. Peduzzi G, Archibugi L, Katzke V, et al. Common variability in oestrogen-related genes and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma risk in women. Sci Rep, 2022, 12(1): 18100.
22. Sun J, Qiao Y, Zhao M, et al. Global, regional, and national burden of cardiovascular diseases in youths and young adults aged 15-39 years in 204 countries/territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. BMC Med, 2023, 21(1): 222.
23. Tian W, Zhu G, Xiao W, et al. Stroke burden and attributable risk factors in China, 1990-2019. Front Neurol. 2023, 14(5): 1193056.
24. 梁琼, 张晓波, 宋雪茜. 中国老年人口健康水平空间分布及影响因素. 中国老年学杂志, 2022, 42(8): 1994-2000.
25. Lugo A, Peveri G, Gallus S. Should we consider gallbladder cancer a new smoking-related cancer. A comprehensive meta-analysis focused on dose-response relationships. Int J Cancer, 2020, 146(12): 3304-3311.
26. Wijarnpreecha K, Werlang M, Panjawatanan P, et al. Association between smoking and risk of primary biliary cholangitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Gastrointestin Liver Dis, 2019, 28: 197-203.
27. Phua ZJ, MacInnis RJ, Jayasekara H. Cigarette smoking and risk of second primary cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Cancer Epidemiol, 2022, 78: 102160.
28. Collatuzzo G, Alicandro G, Bertuccio P, et al. Peptic ulcer as mediator of the association between risk of gastric cancer and socioeconomic status, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking and salt intake. J Epidemiol Community Health, 2022.

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