目的:观察康复训练结合电针疗法综合治疗汶川地震伤员四肢骨折术后关节活动度、肢体肿胀等功能障碍的疗效。方法: 将126例患者分为治疗组63例,采用康复训练结合电针疗法;对照组63例,于术后第2天自行功能锻炼。测量治疗前后关节活动度(ROM)、肢体肿胀消退时间及疼痛减轻程度并据此确定疗效。结果: 用统计学方法处理,说明两组之间ROM、肢体肿胀消退时间及疼痛减轻程度比较均有统计学意义(Plt;0.05)。结论: 采用康复训练结合电针能有效提高地震伤员四肢骨折后关节功能障碍的疗效。
ObjectiveTo establish a forecasting model for inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures and predict the trend of its variation.MethodsAccording to inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures from January 2013 to December 2018, this paper analyzed its characteristics and established the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to make a short-term quantitative forecast.ResultsA total of 4 451 patients, involving 2 861 males and 1 590 females were included. The ratio of males to females was 1.8 to 1, and the average age was 5.655. There was a significant difference in age distribution between males and females (χ2=44.363, P<0.001). The inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures were recorded monthly, with predominant peak annually, from April to June and September to October, respectively. Using the data of the training set from January 2013 to May 2018, a SARIMA model of SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model (white noise test, P>0.05) was identified to make short-term forecast for the prediction set from June 2018 to November 2018, with RMSE=8.110, MAPE=9.386, and the relative error between the predicted value and the actual value ranged from 1.61% to 8.06%.ConclusionsCompared with the actual cases, the SARIMA model fits well with good short-term prediction accuracy, and it can help provide reliable data support for a scientific forecast for the inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures.