目的:在移动平均趋势剔除法、最小二乘法两种趋势剔除法中找出一种能较好反映某医院门诊量季节变化规律的方法。方法:根据该医院2005~2008年各月门诊数据,运用移动平均趋势剔除法、最小二乘法分别计算该医院门诊患者的季节指数(seasonal index)和各月预测值,并对预测结果进行平均绝对偏差(MAD)、平均平方误差(MSE)、平均预测误差(AFE)、平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)分析。同时,判断实际值与预测值的容许区间的关系。结果:移动平均趋势剔除法和最小二乘法预测值的MAD、MSE、AFE、MAPE分别为766.94,888236.8542,-0.23,5.478249.8%和739.0196,802281.2,0.125,5.259-453%。移动平均趋势剔除法有4个实际值落在容许区间之外,最小二乘法有2个。结论:最小二乘法能够更好反映出该院门诊量季节变化的规律,是预测的最佳选择方案。
ObjectiveTo acquire the flow law of outpatient and emergency visits in a large general hospital. MethodsBy sampling monthly amount of outpatient and emergency from January 2005 to December 2013 of a large general hospital in Guangzhou, the trend of the time series was analyzed and calculated the seasonal index of the amount of hospital outpatient and emergency visits with the use of long-term trends method. ResultThe flow law of patients in the hospital outpatient and emergency was significantly affected by seasonal factors, and different month had its own variation characters. The seasonal indexes were the highest in March, July, August, November and December (seasonal index >105%), while the lowest in January, February, October (seasonal index <95%). ConclusionBased on analysis of the outpatient and emergency visits and causes with hospitals, decision makers and hospitals should make reasonable allocation of medical resources and provide evidence for the scientific decisions of hospital management. Thus, ensure the safety of patients.