Abstract： Objective To establish a risk prediction model and risk score for inhospital mortality in heart valve surgery patients, in order to promote its perioperative safety. Methods We collected records of 4 032 consecutive patients who underwent aortic valve replacement, mitral valve repair, mitral valve replacement, or aortic and mitral combination procedure in Changhai hospital from January 1,1998 to December 31,2008. Their average age was 45.90±13.60 years and included 1 876 (46.53%) males and 2 156 (53.57%) females. Based on the valve operated on, we divided the patients into three groups including mitral valve surgery group (n=1 910), aortic valve surgery group (n=724), and mitral plus aortic valve surgery group (n=1 398). The population was divided a 60% development sample (n=2 418) and a 40% validation sample (n=1 614). We identified potential risk factors, conducted univariate analysis and multifactor logistic regression to determine the independent risk factors and set up a risk model. The calibration and discrimination of the model were assessed by the HosmerLemeshow (H-L) test and [CM(159mm]the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve,respectively. We finally produced a risk score according to the coefficient β and rank of variables in the logistic regression model. Results The general inhospital mortality of the whole group was 4.74% (191/4 032). The results of multifactor logistic regression analysis showed that eight variables including tricuspid valve incompetence with OR=1.33 and 95%CI 1.071 to 1.648, arotic valve stenosis with OR=1.34 and 95%CI 1.082 to 1.659, chronic lung disease with OR=2.11 and 95%CI 1.292 to 3.455, left ventricular ejection fraction with OR=1.55 and 95%CI 1.081 to 2.234, critical preoperative status with OR=2.69 and 95%CI 1.499 to 4.821, NYHA ⅢⅣ (New York Heart Association) with OR=2.75 and 95%CI 1.343 to 5641, concomitant coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) with OR=3.02 and 95%CI 1.405 to 6.483, and serum creatinine just before surgery with OR=4.16 and 95%CI 1.979 to 8.766 were independently correlated with inhospital mortality. Our risk model showed good calibration and discriminative power for all the groups. P values of H-L test were all higher than 0.05 (development sample: χ2=1.615, P=0.830, validation sample: χ2=2.218, P=0.200, mitral valve surgery sample: χ2=5.175,P=0.470, aortic valve surgery sample: χ2=12.708, P=0.090, mitral plus aortic valve surgery sample: χ2=3.875, P=0.380), and the areas under the ROC curve were all larger than 0.70 (development sample: 0.757 with 95%CI 0.712 to 0.802, validation sample: 0.754 and 95%CI 0.701 to 0806; mitral valve surgery sample: 0.760 and 95%CI 0.706 to 0.813, aortic valve surgery sample: 0.803 and 95%CI 0.738 to 0.868, mitral plus aortic valve surgery sample: 0.727 and 95%CI 0.668 to 0.785). The risk score was successfully established: tricuspid valve regurgitation (mild:1 point, moderate: 2 points, severe:3 points), arotic valve stenosis (mild: 1 point, moderate: 2 points, severe: 3 points), chronic lung disease (3 points), left ventricular ejection fraction (40% to 50%: 2 points, 30% to 40%: 4 points, ＜30%: 6 points), critical preoperative status (3 points), NYHA IIIIV (4 points), concomitant CABG (4 points), and serum creatinine (＞110 μmol/L: 5 points).Conclusion Eight risk factors including tricuspid valve regurgitation are independent risk factors associated with inhospital mortality of heart valve surgery patients in China. The established risk model and risk score have good calibration and discrimination in predicting inhospital mortality of heart valve surgery patients.
Heart valve disease is one of the three most common cardiac diseases,and the patients undergoing valve surgery have been increasing every year. Due to the high mortality,increasing number of valve surgeries,and increasing economic burdens on public health, a lot of risk models for valve surgery have been developed by various countries based on their own clinical data all over the world,which aimed to regulate the preoperative risk assessment and decrease the perioperative mortality. Over the last 10 years, a number of excellent risk models for valve surgery have finally been developed including the Society of Thoracic Surgeons(STS), the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ National Cardiac Database (STS NCD),New York Cardiac Surgery Reporting System(NYCSRS),the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation(EuroSCORE),the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group(NNECDSG),the Veterans Affairs Continuous Improvement in Cardiac Surgery Study(VACICSP),Database of the Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland(SCTS), and the North West Quality Improvement Programme in Cardiac Interventions(NWQIP). In this article, we reviewed these risk models which had been developed based on the multicenter database from 1999 to 2009, and summarized these risk models in terms of the year of publication, database, valve categories, and significant risk predictors.
Abstract： Objective To summarize surgical experiences and explore risk factors of patients undergoing repeated heart valve surgery. Methods Clinical records of 325 consecutive patients who underwent repeated heart valve surgery from January 1998 to December 2008 in Changhai Hospital of Second Military Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. There were 149 male patients and 176 female patients with their average age of （47.1±11.8） years. Following variables were collected: preoperative morbidity， heart function， indications and surgical strategies of repeated heart valve surgery， postoperative mortality and morbidity， which were compared with those clinical data of patients who underwent their first heart valve surgery during the same period. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine risk factors of perioperative death of patients undergoing repeated heart valve surgery. Results The main reasons for repeated heart valve surgery were mitral valve restenosis after closed mitral commissurotomy and new other valvular diseases. Postoperatively， 28 patients died in the early-stage with the overall mortality of 8.6% （28/325）. The main reasons of in-hospital death included low cardiac output syndrome （LCOS）and acute renal failure. Compared with patients undergoing their first heart valve surgery， patients who underwent repeated heart valve surgery were more likely to have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease （COPD)， New York Heart Association (NYHA） classⅢ-Ⅳ， and atrial fibrillation， preoperatively. Their cardiopulmonary bypass time and aortic cross clamp time were comparatively longer. They also had more postoperative morbidities such as LCOS， acute renal failure and acute respiratory distress syndrome （ARDS）. Multivariate logistic regression showed that preoperative critical state （OR=2.82， P=0.002）， cardiopulmonary bypass time longer than 120 minutes （OR=1.13， P=0.008）， concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting （OR=1.64， P=0.005）， postoperative LCOS（OR=4.52， P＜0.001）， ARDS （OR=3.11， P＜0.001） and acute renal failure （OR=4.13， P＜0.001）were independent risk factors of perioperative death of patients undergoing repeated heart valve surgery. Conclusion Repeated heart valve surgery is a difficult surgical procedure with comparatively higher risks. Full preoperative assessment of the valvular lesions， proper timing for surgery and perioperative management are helpful to reduce postoperative mortality and morbidity.
ObjectiveTo systematically evaluate the safety of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors on the risk of cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. MethodsDatabases such as the Cochrane Library, PubMed, Elsevier ScienceDirect and EMbase were searched to collect randomized controlled trials (RCTs) about DPP-4 inhibitors for T2DM patients from inception to February 2014. Two reviewers independently screened literature according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of included studies. Then, meta-analysis was performed using RevMan5.2 software. ResultsA total of 20 RCTs involving 10 402 patients were included. The results of meta-analysis showed that:there were no significant differences between the DPP-4 inhibitors group and the control group in the cardiovascular adverse events (RR=0.86, 95%CI 0.62 to 1.20, P=0.38) and acute coronary syndrome (RR=0.66, 95%CI 0.37 to 1.17, P=0.15). Subgroup analyses by type of liptins and durations showed there were lower risks of adverse cardiovascular events in the DPP-4 inhibitors group of the sitagliptin subgroup (RR=0.49, 95%CI 0.29 to 0.82, P=0.007) and the duration of ≥52 weeks subgroup (RR=0.62, 95%CI 0.39 to 0.97, P=0.04). No significant difference was found between the two groups in hypertension events (RR=1.09, 95%CI 0.84 to 1.40, P=0.52). ConclusionThe DPP-4 inhibitors are relatively safe. In the long-term treatment of T2DM, the sitagliptin could not only effectively control the level of blood sugar but also might obtain benefits in cardiovascular aspects.