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EuroSCORE模型对心瓣膜手术患者死亡风险的预测

目的 评价欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统（European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation,EuroSCORE）模型预测行心脏瓣膜手术患者在院死亡率的准确性。 方法 收集1998年1月至2008年12月于第二军医大学长海医院因心脏瓣膜疾病行外科治疗4 155例患者的临床资料，其中男1 955例，女2 200例；年龄45.90±13.64岁。先按additive及 logistic uroSCORE两种方法评分，将患者分为低风险（n=981）、中风险（n=2 492）、高风险（n=682）3个亚组，比较全组及各亚组患者的实际与预测死亡率。模型预测的校准度用HosmerLemeshow卡方检验，预测的鉴别度采用受试者工作特征（receiver operating characteristic，ROC）曲线下面积检验。 结果  4 155例患者在院死亡205例，实际在院死亡率4.93%；additive EuroSCORE预测死亡率为3.80%，而logistic EuroSCORE为3.30%；提示两种评分方法均低估了实际在院死亡率（χ2=11.13， 44.34，Plt;0.05）。additive EuroSCORE对高风险亚组在院死亡预测校准度较高（χ2=361，P=0.31），但对低风险亚组（χ2=0.00，Plt;0.01）及中风险亚组（χ2=14.72，Plt;0.01）较低；而logistic EuroSCORE对低风险亚组（χ2=1.66，P=0.88）及高风险亚组（χ2=11.71，P=0.11）在院死亡预测准确性均较高，却低估了中风险亚组（χ2=17.48，Plt;0.01）的实际在院死亡率。两种评分方法对全组患者在院死亡预测的鉴别度均较差（ROC曲线下面积分别为0.676和0.677）。 结论 EuroSCORE模型对本中心心瓣膜手术患者死亡风险预测的准确性较差，不适合本中心心瓣膜手术的风险预测，在今后的临床实践中应慎重使用。

Establishment of a Risk Prediction Model and Risk Score for Inhospital Mortality after Heart Valve Surgery

Abstract： Objective To establish a risk prediction model and risk score for inhospital mortality in heart valve surgery patients, in order to promote its perioperative safety. Methods We collected records of 4 032 consecutive patients who underwent aortic valve replacement, mitral valve repair, mitral valve replacement, or aortic and mitral combination procedure in Changhai hospital from January 1,1998 to December 31,2008. Their average age was 45.90±13.60 years and included 1 876 (46.53%) males and 2 156 (53.57%) females. Based on the valve operated on, we divided the patients into three groups including mitral valve surgery group (n=1 910), aortic valve surgery group (n=724), and mitral plus aortic valve surgery group (n=1 398). The population was divided a 60% development sample (n=2 418) and a 40% validation sample (n=1 614). We identified potential risk factors, conducted univariate analysis and multifactor logistic regression to determine the independent risk factors and set up a risk model. The calibration and discrimination of the model were assessed by the HosmerLemeshow (H-L) test and [CM(159mm]the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve,respectively. We finally produced a risk score according to the coefficient β and rank of variables in the logistic regression model. Results The general inhospital mortality of the whole group was 4.74% (191/4 032). The results of multifactor logistic regression analysis showed that eight variables including tricuspid valve incompetence with OR=1.33 and 95%CI 1.071 to 1.648, arotic valve stenosis with OR=1.34 and 95%CI 1.082 to 1.659, chronic lung disease with OR=2.11 and 95%CI 1.292 to 3.455, left ventricular ejection fraction with OR=1.55 and 95%CI 1.081 to 2.234, critical preoperative status with OR=2.69 and 95%CI 1.499 to 4.821, NYHA ⅢⅣ (New York Heart Association) with OR=2.75 and 95%CI 1.343 to 5641, concomitant coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) with OR=3.02 and 95%CI 1.405 to 6.483, and serum creatinine just before surgery with OR=4.16 and 95%CI 1.979 to 8.766 were independently correlated with inhospital mortality. Our risk model showed good calibration and discriminative power for all the groups. P values of H-L test were all higher than 0.05 (development sample: χ2=1.615, P=0.830, validation sample: χ2=2.218, P=0.200, mitral valve surgery sample: χ2=5.175,P=0.470, aortic valve surgery sample: χ2=12.708, P=0.090, mitral plus aortic valve surgery sample: χ2=3.875, P=0.380), and the areas under the ROC curve were all larger than 0.70 (development sample: 0.757 with 95%CI 0.712 to 0.802, validation sample: 0.754 and 95%CI 0.701 to 0806; mitral valve surgery sample: 0.760 and 95%CI 0.706 to 0.813, aortic valve surgery sample: 0.803 and 95%CI 0.738 to 0.868, mitral plus aortic valve surgery sample: 0.727 and 95%CI 0.668 to 0.785). The risk score was successfully established: tricuspid valve regurgitation (mild:1 point, moderate: 2 points, severe:3 points), arotic valve stenosis (mild: 1 point, moderate: 2 points, severe: 3 points), chronic lung disease (3 points), left ventricular ejection fraction (40% to 50%: 2 points, 30% to 40%: 4 points, ＜30%: 6 points), critical preoperative status (3 points), NYHA IIIIV (4 points), concomitant CABG (4 points), and serum creatinine (＞110 μmol/L: 5 points).Conclusion  Eight risk factors including tricuspid valve regurgitation are independent risk factors associated with inhospital mortality of heart valve surgery patients in China. The established risk model and risk score have good calibration and discrimination in predicting inhospital mortality of heart valve surgery patients.

Current Status and Progress of Risk Models for Cardiac Valve Surgery

Heart valve disease is one of the three most common cardiac diseases,and the patients undergoing valve surgery have been increasing every year. Due to the high mortality,increasing number of valve surgeries,and increasing economic burdens on public health, a lot of risk models for valve surgery have been developed by various countries based on their own clinical data all over the world,which aimed to regulate the preoperative risk assessment and decrease the perioperative mortality. Over the last 10 years, a number of excellent risk models for valve surgery have finally been developed including the Society of Thoracic Surgeons(STS), the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ National Cardiac Database (STS NCD),New York Cardiac Surgery Reporting System(NYCSRS),the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation(EuroSCORE),the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group(NNECDSG),the Veterans Affairs Continuous Improvement in Cardiac Surgery Study(VACICSP),Database of the Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland(SCTS), and the North West Quality Improvement Programme in Cardiac Interventions(NWQIP). In this article, we reviewed these risk models which had been developed based on the multicenter database from 1999 to 2009, and summarized these risk models in terms of the year of publication, database, valve categories, and significant risk predictors. 

心内直视手术后气管切开及其处理方法

应用左心室辅助治疗二尖瓣狭窄合并严重肺动脉高压一例

Surgical treatment of retrograde type A aortic dissection after thoracic endovascular aortic repair for Stanford type B aortic dissection

Objective To analyze the etiologies, surgical treatment and outcomes of retrograde type A aortic dissection (RTAD) after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) for Stanford type B aortic dissection. Methods The clinical data of patients with RTAD after TEVAR for Stanford type B aortic dissection receiving operations in Changhai Hospital from March 2014 to August 2018 were analyzed. All patients were followed-up by clinic interview or telephone. Results A total of 16 patients were enrolled, including 13 males and 3 females with a mean age of 49.1±12.2 years. The main symptoms of RTAD were chest pain in 12 patients, headache in 1 patient, conscious disturbance in 1 patient, and asymptomatic in 2 patients. All the 16 patients received total arch replacement with the frozen elephant trunk technique. Bentall procedure was used in 2 patients, aortic root plasticity in 10 patients and aortic valve replacement in 1 patient. The primary tear in 10 patients was located in the area which were anchored by bare mental stent, and in the other 6 patients it was located in the anterior part of ascending aorta. The mean cardiopulmonary bypass time was 152.2±29.4 min, aortic cross-clamping time was 93.6±27.8 min and selective cerebral perfusion time was 29.8±8.3 min. There was no death in hospital or within postoperative 30 days. The follow-up period was 32-85 (57.4±18.3) months. No death occurred during the follow-up period. One patient underwent TEVAR again 3 years after this operation and had an uneventful survival. Conclusion Total arch replacement with the frozen elephant trunk technique is a suitable strategy for the management of RTAD after TEVAR for Stanford type B aortic dissection.

Clinical Analysis of Repeated Heart Valve Surgery in 325 Patients

Abstract： Objective To summarize surgical experiences and explore risk factors of patients undergoing repeated heart valve surgery. Methods Clinical records of 325 consecutive patients who underwent repeated heart valve surgery from January 1998 to December 2008 in Changhai Hospital of Second Military Medical University were retrospectively　 analyzed. There were 149 male patients and 176 female patients with their average age of （47.1±11.8） years. Following　 variables were collected: preoperative morbidity， heart function， indications and surgical strategies of repeated heart valve surgery， postoperative mortality and morbidity， which were compared with those clinical data of patients who underwent their first heart valve surgery during the same period. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine risk factors of perioperative death of patients undergoing repeated heart valve surgery. Results The main reasons for repeated heart valve surgery were mitral valve restenosis after closed mitral commissurotomy and new other valvular diseases. Postoperatively， 28 patients died in the early-stage with the overall mortality of 8.6% （28/325）. The main reasons of in-hospital death included low cardiac output syndrome （LCOS）and acute renal failure. Compared with patients undergoing their first heart valve surgery， patients who underwent repeated heart valve surgery were more likely to have chronic obstructive　 pulmonary disease （COPD)， New York Heart Association (NYHA） classⅢ-Ⅳ， and atrial fibrillation， preoperatively. Their cardiopulmonary bypass time and aortic cross clamp time were comparatively longer. They also had more postoperative　 morbidities such as LCOS， acute renal failure and acute respiratory distress syndrome （ARDS）. Multivariate logistic regression showed that preoperative critical state （OR=2.82， P=0.002）， cardiopulmonary bypass time longer than 120 minutes （OR=1.13， P=0.008）， concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting （OR=1.64， P=0.005）， postoperative LCOS（OR=4.52， P＜0.001）， ARDS （OR=3.11， P＜0.001） and acute renal failure （OR=4.13， P＜0.001）were independent risk factors of perioperative death of patients undergoing repeated heart valve surgery. Conclusion Repeated heart valve surgery is a difficult surgical procedure with comparatively higher risks. Full preoperative assessment of the valvular lesions，　 proper timing for surgery and perioperative management are helpful to reduce postoperative mortality and morbidity.

Influence of Preoperative Atrial Fibrillation on Midterm and Longterm Outcomes of Patients after Mitral Valve　Replacement

Abstract：　Objective　To determine the influence of preoperative atrial fibrillation （AF） on midterm and longterm clinical outcomes of patients after mitral valve replacement （MVR）.　Methods　We retrospectively analyzed clinical data of 1 029 patients who underwent MVR with or without tricuspid valve repair in Changhai Hospital， Second Military Medical　University， from January 2000 to December 2005. According to the exclusion criteria， 621 patients were selected and divided into two groups depending on presence of preoperative AF. Those 395 patients with preoperative AF belonged to the AF group， including 134 males and 261 females with their average age of 51.1±11.5 years. Those 226 patients with preoperative sinus rhythm （SR） were in the SR group， including 82 males and 144 females with their average age of 48.2±14.1 years. Early postoperative outcomes， midterm and longterm mortality and morbidity of the two groups were compared.　Results　During 10 years of follow-up， there was no statistical difference in early postoperative mortality and morbidity between the two groups， but the incidence of late thromboembolism was significantly higher in AF group than that in SR group ［0.9‰ （31 patients/33 984 patient-months） vs. 0.4‰ （9 patients/21 151 patient-months）， χ2=4.26， P=0.039］. Ten-year survival rate in patients in AF group was significantly lower than that in SR group （83.2% vs. 92.7%， χ2=10.26， P=0.002）. Multivariate analysis identified preoperative AF ［HR=2.878， 95% CI （1.166，4.129）］， low left ventricular ejection fraction ［HR=0.948， 95% CI （0.917，0.981）］ ， and old age ［HR=1.073， 95% CI （1.038，1.109）］ as independent risk factors for late mortality after MVR. Apart from its influence on patient survival rate and incidence of thromboembolism， preoperative AF also had an adverse effect on left ventricular function， right ventricular function and tricuspid regurgitation.　Conclusion　AF is an independent risk factor for poor prognosis after MVR. Prognosis after MVR might be improved if surgery could be performed early when patients have predictive signs of AF such as multiple premature atrial contractions or left atrium enlargement.

Risk factors for gastrointestinal bleeding after type A aortic dissection surgery: A retrospective cohort study

Objective To investigate the risk factors for postoperative gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in patients with type A aortic dissection, and further discuss its prevention and treatment. Methods The clinical data of patients with type A aortic dissection admitted to the Department of Cardiovascular Surgery of the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University from 2017 to 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into a GIB group and a non-GIB group based on the presence of GIB after surgery. The variables with statistical differences between two groups in univariate analysis were included into a multivariate logistic regression model to analyze the risk factors for postoperative GIB in patients with type A aortic dissection. Results There were 18 patients in the GIB group including 12 males and 6 females, aged 60.11±10.63 years, while 511 patients in the non-GIB group including 384 males and 127 females, aged 49.81±12.88 years. In the univariate analysis, there were statistical differences in age, preoperative percutaneous arterial oxygen saturation (SpO2)<95%, intraoperative circulatory arrest time, postoperative low cardiac output syndrome, ventilator withdrawal time>72 hours, postoperative FiO2≥50%, continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) rate, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) rate, infection rate, length of hospital stay and ICU stay, and in-hospital mortality (all P<0.05). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, preoperative SpO2<95% (OR=10.845, 95%CI 2.038-57.703), ventilator withdrawal time>72 hours (OR=0.004, 95%CI 0.001-0.016), CRRT (OR=6.822, 95%CI 1.778-26.171) were risk factors for postoperative GIB in patients (P≤0.005). In the intra-group analysis of GIB, non-occlusive mesenteric ischemia (NOMI) accounted for 38.9% (7/18) and was the main disease type for postoperative GIB in patients with type A aortic dissection. Conclusion In addition to patients with entrapment involving the superior mesenteric artery who are prone to postoperative GIB, preoperative SpO2<95%, ventilator withdrawal time>72 hours, and CRRT are independent risk factors for postoperative GIB in patients with type A aortic dissection. NOMI is a major disease category for GIB, and timely diagnosis and aggressive treatment are effective ways to reduce mortality. Awareness of its risk factors and treatment are also ways to reduce its incidence.

Clinical treatment of acute aortic dissection in late pregnancy and puerperium

Objective To study the clinical characteristics, therapy strategies and the outcomes of female patients with acute aortic dissection during late pregnancy and puerperal period. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 7 patients with acute aortic dissection during late pregnancy and puerperal period in Shanghai Changhai Hospital between August 2012 and June 2017. Five of the 7 patients were late stage pregnancy, 2 were puerperal period (1 at the postpartum night, 1 in 18 days after delivery). There were 6 patients of Stanford type A aortic dissection (85.7%), and 1 patient of type B aortic dissection (14.3%). The age of the patients ranged from 26 to 34 (30.8±3.1) years. Cardiac ultrasonography of patients with type A showed that the maximum diameter of the ascending aortas was 4.2–5.7 (4.7±0.6) cm, of which 2 patients were aneurysm of aortic sinus, 3 patients were with Marfan syndrome. Bentall procedure was conducted in 1 patient, Bentall+Sun’s surgery in 2 patients, ascending aorta replacement+Sun’s+coronary artery bypass grafting surgery in 1 patient, aortic root remodeling+ascending aorta replacement+Sun’s surgery in 2 patients. One patient with Stanford type B acute aortic dissection was performed with thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) after cesarean section. Results Aortic blocking time ranged from 51 to 129 (85.5±22.9) min. Cardiopulmonary bypass time was 75–196 (159.0±44.0) min. Moderate hypothermic circulation arrest with selective cerebral perfusion time was 20–30 (23.8±3.5) min. All maternal and fetuses survived. The infant whose mother received aortic repair in early stage and then received cesarean section was diagnosed with cerebral palsy. Maternal and fetuses were followed up for 9 months to 4 years. During the follow up period, all the fetuses grew well except the cerebral palsy one, and all maternal recovered well. The patient who received aortic repair in the early stage, had a sigmoid rupture during cesarean section and was treated with sigmoid colostomy. Another patient with Stanford type A dissection was diagnosed as left renal vein entrapment syndrome after 2 years. Conclusion Type A aortic dissection is more common in late pregnancy and puerperal patients. And Marfan syndrome is a high-risk factor for acute aortic dissection in pregnancy women. Early and appropriate surgical treatment strategy based on the type of aortic dissection and gestational age are the key points to achieve good outcomes both for maternal and fetus.