ObjectiveTo analyze the influencing factors of acute exacerbation readmission in elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) within 30 days, construct and validate the risk prediction model.MethodsA total of 1120 elderly patients with COPD in the respiratory department of 13 general hospitals in Ningxia from April 2019 to August 2020 were selected by convenience sampling method and followed up until 30 days after discharge. According to the time of filling in the questionnaire, 784 patients who entered the study first served as the modeling group, and 336 patients who entered the study later served as the validation group to verify the prediction effect of the model.ResultsEducation level, smoking status, number of acute exacerbations of COPD hospitalizations in the past 1 year, regular use of medication, rehabilitation and exercise, nutritional status and seasonal factors were the influencing factors of patients’ readmission to hospital. The risk prediction model was constructed: Z=–8.225–0.310×assignment of education level+0.564×assignment of smoking status+0.873×assignment of number of acute exacerbations of COPD hospitalizations in the past 1 year+0.779×assignment of regular use of medication+0.617×assignment of rehabilitation and exercise +0.970×assignment of nutritional status+assignment of seasonal factors [1.170×spring (0, 1)+0.793×autumn (0, 1)+1.488×winter (0, 1)]. The area under ROC curve was 0.746, the sensitivity was 75.90%, and the specificity was 64.30%. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that P=0.278. Results of model validation showed that the sensitivity, the specificity and the accuracy were 69.44%, 85.71% and 81.56%, respectively.ConclusionsEducation level, smoking status, number of acute exacerbations of COPD hospitalizations in the past 1 year, regular use of medication, rehabilitation and exercise, nutritional status and seasonal factors are the influencing factors of patients’ readmission to hospital. The risk prediction model is constructed based on these factor. This model has good prediction effect, can provide reference for the medical staff to take preventive treatment and nursing measures for high-risk patients.
Objective To investigate human resource allocation in primary health care and the essential medical service and publ ic health service status in urban and rural areas in Chengdu, so as to provide basel ine data for the Special Healthcare Program of Comprehensive Reform for Coordinated and Balanced Urban-Rural Development in Chengdu. Methods We carried out a stratified (three circles in Chengdu) sampl ing of 7 township hospitals (rural hospitals) and community health service centers; and then performed secondary research based on a comparative analysis of relevant pol icies of the World Health Organization (WHO) and Chinese governments at all levels. Results According to the WHO and national average standards, the number of staff per 1 000 rural hospitals / centers health personnel of the 7 rural hospitals / centers occupied only 1%-22% of the global average standard. There was a very large gap between the number of staff and the number of personnel required, based on the size of the population that should be served in the administrative areas in 2006 or the number of cl inic patients in 2006. The primary healthcare personnel structure was irrational. For example, the constituent ratio of health technical personnel was 4% to 33% higher than the global average level, and the constituent ratio of (assistant) physicians was also 17% to 45% higher than the global average level. However, the ratio of nurses, laboratory workers, other health professionals, administrative and supporting personnel was generally lower than the global average level. Women dominated among the primary healthcare personnel, and people aged 45 years or below counted for more than 75% (except Bailu and Wangjiang rural hospitals/centers). People with an educational background of two-year college education or secondary education or below took up 70% to 90%; while those with an intermediate title or assistant /primary title accounted for 50% to 100%. The structure rational ity of distribution density, educational background and academic titles of healthcare personnel showed a decreasing trend from the first circle to the third circle in Chengdu city. Conclusion The primary health workers in the second and third circle have been overloaded with low incomes for some time. They are facing enormous challenges in their professional skills, service awareness, as well as difficulties in continuing education and professional title promotion. It is very difficult to provide qual ified "six in one" primary health care and publ ic health services in a long-term and stable manner. It is suggested that we enroll and train more skilled people for primary health care service, and provide continuing education chances for current health care personnel. We should also adopt a mechanism to select qual ified personnel based on their performance, and take measures to solve some of the problems faced by the grass-root health personnel, such as heavy work burden, low income, poor skill and promotion. This will help us to construct a stable and qual ified primary healthcare team.