Objective To investigate the differences between six parts of China in prediction models of lung function.Methods The predicted values of 360 healthy volunteers underwent pulmonary functiontest in east China were compared with that of north China, northeast China, northwest China, southwest China, south China and Asian American. Results In the male group, the prediction values of east China were as follows: VC ( 4. 19 ±0. 33) L, coefficient correlation( r) to the other five regions were 0. 803-0. 983,the differences to the other five regions were 1. 90% -4. 30% ; FVC ( 4. 06 ±0. 35) L, r to the others were 0. 912-0. 981, the differences to the other four regions were 0-2. 46% except for south China of 8. 10% , to Asian American ×0. 88 and Asian American ×0. 94 were 1. 97% and 4. 68% ; FEV1 ( 3. 34 ±0. 40) L, r to the others were 0. 963-0. 992, the differences to north China and east China were 0. 9% and 3. 59% , to southwest China and south China were gt;5% , to Asian American ×0. 88 and Asian American×0. 94 were 6. 89% and 0. 6% ; FEV1 /FVC ( 80. 87 ±3. 84) % , r to the others were 0. 989-0. 999, the differences to north China, northeast China and south China were 0. 42% -3. 04% , to the others were gt;5% . In the female group, the prediction values of east China were as follows: VC ( 3. 00 ±0. 33) L, r to the other five regions were 0. 899-0. 993, the differences to the other five regions were 0. 33% -3. 67% ; FVC( 2. 92 ±0. 34) L, r to the other five regions were 0. 929-0. 990, the differences to the other five regions were 1. 02% -2. 40%, to Asian American ×0. 88 and Asian American ×0. 94 were 4. 79% and 6. 16% ; FEV1 ( 2. 38 ±0. 39) L, r to the other five regions were 0. 958-0. 994, the differences to northeast China, southwest China, south China were 0. 84% -3. 36% , to north china was 7. 19% , to Asian American ×0. 88 and Asian American ×0. 94 were 2. 10% and 4. 62% ; FEV1 /FVC ( 82. 04 ±3. 94) % , r to the others were 0. 991-1. 000, the differences to the other four regions were 1. 34% -4. 55% except for southwest China was 7. 59% . Conclusions VC and FVC predicted values are coincident between six parts of China. FEV1 /FVC predicted values are coincident in the four parts of China except for westnorth and westsouth China. FEV1 predicted values are different. The oversea predicted values should be used with appropriate conversion factors.
Objective To analyze risk factors of acute kidney injury （AKI） after cardiac surgery in adults and develop a clinical score system to predict postoperative AKI. Methods Clinical data of 3 500 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery from June 2010 to April 2011 in Beijing Anzhen Hospital of Capital Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether they had postoperative AKI，all these patients were divided into AKI group and non-AKI group. AKI group was consisted of 1 407 patients （40.2%） with a mean age of 58±12 years，including 1 004 male patients （71.4%）. The non-AKI group was consisted of 2 093 patients （59.8%） with a mean age of 55±13 years，including 1 259 male patients （60.2%）. Predictive score system of postoperative AKI was established by univariate analysis between the AKI and non-AKI group and multivariate logistic regression and then verified. Results The predictive score system was as followed：male gender （2 points），every 5 years older than 60 years （1 point），diabetes mellitus （2 points），preoperative use of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin AT1 receptor blocker （1 point），every 10 ml / （min·1.73 m2） of preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate （eGFR） under 90 ml / （min·1.73m2） （1 point），preoperative NYHA class Ⅳ （3 points），cardiopulmonary bypass time＞120 minutes （2 points），intraoperative hypotension duration＞60 minutes （2 points），postoperative hypotension duration＞60 minutes （3 points），postoperative peak dosage of intravenous furosemide＞100 mg/day （3 points），postoperative peak dosage of intravenous furosemide 60-100 mg/day （2 points），and postoperative mechanical ventilation time＞24 hours （2 points）. The predictive score system presented a good discrimination ability with the area under the receiver operating characteristic（ROC）curve of 0.738 with 95% CI 0.707 to 0.768，while it also presented a good calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic （P=0.305）. Conclusion A clinical predictive score system for AKI after cardiac surgery in adults is established，which may help clinicians implement early preventive interventions.
Abstract： Objective To validate the value of Cleveland Clinical Score to predict acute renal failure（ARF） requiring renal replacement therapy （RRT） and in-hospital death in Chinese adult patients after cardiac surgery. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted for all the patients who underwent cardiac surgery from January 2005 to December 2009 in Renji Hospital of School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University. A total of 2 153 adult patients, 1 267 males and 886 females，were included. Their age ranged from 18 to 99 years with an average age of 58.70 years. Cleveland Clinical Score was used to predict ARF after cardiac surgery. ARF was defined as the need for RRT. Based on Cleveland Clinical Score, the patients were divided into four risk categories of increasing severity：0 to 2 point（n=979）, 3 to 5 point （n=1 116）, 6 to 8 point（n=54）, 9 to 13 point（n=4）. The rates of ARF, multiple organ system failure （MOSF）, and mortality were compared among the 4 categories. The predictive accuracy of postoperative ARF and hospital mortality was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve （AUC-ROC）. Results In the four categories, the rate of postoperative ARF was 0.92%, 1.88%, 12.96%, and 25.00%, respectively； MOSF rate was 1.23%, 1.88%, 3.70%, and 25.00%, respectively; mortality was 0.92%, 4.21%, 25.93%, and 50.00%, respectively. There was significant dif ference among the four categories in ARF rate （χ2=55.635, P=0.000），MOSF rate（χ2=16.080, P=0.001）, and mortality （χ2=71.470, P=0.000）. The AUC-ROC for Cleveland Clinical Score predicting ARF rate and hospital mortality was 0.775 （95%CI 0.713 to 0.837, P=0.000）and 0.764（95%CI, 0.711 to 0.817, P=0.000）, respectively. Conclusion Cleveland Clinical Score can accurately predict postoperative ARF and hospital mortality in a large, unselected Chinese cohort of adult patients after cardiac surgery. It can be used to provide evidence for effective preventive measures for patients at high risk of postoperative ARF.
Abstract： Objective To evaluate the incidence and prognosis of postoperative acute kidney injury （AKI） in patients after cardiovascular surgery， and analyse the value of AKI criteria and classification using the Acute Kidney Injury Network （AKIN） definition to predict their in-hospital mortality. Methods A total of 1 056 adult patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery in Renji Hospital of School of Medicine， Shanghai Jiaotong University from Jan. 2004 to Jun. 2007 were included in this study. AKI criteria and classification under AKIN definition were used to evaluate the incidence and in-hospital mortality of AKI patients. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to evaluate preoperative， intraoperative， and postoperative risk factors related to AKI. Results Among the 1 056 patients， 328 patients（31.06%） had AKI. In-hospital mortality of AKI patients was significantly higher than that of non-AKI patients （11.59% vs. 0.69%， P＜0.05）. Multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that advanced age （OR=1.40 per decade）， preoperative hyperuricemia（OR=1.97）， preoperative left ventricular failure （OR=2.53）， combined CABG and valvular surgery （OR=2.79）， prolonged operation time （OR=1.43 per hour）， postoperative hypovolemia （OR=11.08） were independent risk factors of AKI after cardiovascular surgery. The area under the ROC curve of AKIN classification to predict in-hospital mortality was 0.865 （95% CI 0.801-0.929）. Conclusion Higher AKIN classification is related to higher in-hospital mortality after cardiovascular surgery. Advanced age， preoperative hyperuricemia， preoperative left ventricular failure， combined CABG and valvular surgery， prolonged operation time， postoperative hypovolemia are independent risk factors of AKI after cardiovascular surgery. AKIN classification can effectively predict in-hospital mortality in patients after cardiovascular surgery， which provides evidence to take effective preventive and interventive measures for high-risk patients as early as possible.
Abstract: Objective To investigate the application value of the Clinical Score developed by Cleveland University in predicting the occurrence ratio of acute renal failure in Chinese patients after cardiac surgery. Methods A total of 456 adult patients , 230 males and 226 females , with cardiac surgery during August 2008 to July 2009 were included in our study. Their age ranged from 18 to 88 years with an average age of 56.7 years. Before the surgery, Clinical Score was used to predict acute renal failure after cardiac surgery. Based on the score of ≤5, 610, or ≥11, the patients were divided into group Ⅰ (n=401), group Ⅱ (n=42) and group Ⅲ (n=13). The occurrence rate of acute kidney injury (AKI), continuous renal replacement therapy in hospital, multiple organ failure, mortality and other clinical indexes were compared among the 3 groups. Results Occurrence ratio of AKI of group Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ was respectively 2.74%, 28.57% and 76.92% (χ2=73.004, P=0.000). Continuous renal replacement therapy rate was respectively 0.50%, 9.52%, and 38.46% (χ2=36.939, P=0.000). Multiple organ failure rate was respectively 0.50%, 4.76%, and 23.08% (χ2=19.694, P=0.000). Mortality rate was respectively 0.25%, 2.38%, and 15.38% (χ2=14.061, P=0.001). There were significant differences among the three groups. Conclusion The Clinical Score to Predict Acute Renal Failure developed by Cleveland University can effectively predict the occurrence rate of acute renal failure in the Chinese patients after cardiac surgery before the operation. Therefore, corresponding preventive methods can be taken for highrisk patients.
Objective To evaluate the predicted value of APACHEⅡ score at admission for deep fungal infection（DFI） in patients with severe acute pancreatitis （SAP）.Methods The clinical data of 132 patients with SAP from January 2006 to June 2011 in our hospital were analyzed retrospectively. The receiver operating characteristic curve （ROC） was used for evaluating the predicted value.Results Thirty-nine patients with SAP infected DFI （29.5%）,of which 36 patients （92.3%） infected with Candida albicans,2 patients （5.1%） with Candida tropicalis,1 patient （2.6%） with pearl bacteria.And,among these 39 patients,27 patients （69.2%） infected at single site,12 patients （30.8%） infected at multi-site. The APACHEⅡ score in 39 patients with DFI was higher than that of 93 patients without DFI （17.1±3.8 versus 9.7±2.1, t=14.316,P=0.000）.The ROC for APACHEⅡ score predicting DFI was 0.745（P=0.000）, 95%CI was 0.641－0.849.When the cut off point was 15,it showed the best forecast performance,with specificity 0.81, sensitivity 0.72,Youden index 0.53. Conclusions The APACHEⅡ score at admission can preferably predict DFI in patients with SAP； when the APACHEⅡ score is greater than 15,it prompts highly possible of DFI,so preventive anti-fungal treatment may be necessary.
ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical characteristics and predicting factors for death in critically ill patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). MethodA total of 143 hospitalized patients with severe CAP between January 2009 and December 2012 were included and their clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. According to the clinical outcome, patients were divided into survival group and death group, and their clinical features and laboratory test results were compared, and multivariate regression analysis was conducted to search for predicting factors for death. ResultsIn this study, a total of 118 patients survived and 25 patients died, and the mortality rate was 17.5%. The number of underlying diseases in the two groups were different, and death group had more patients with 3 kinds of diseases than the survival group[76.0% (19/25) vs. 22.8% (13/57), P<0.05]. The intubation rate in the death group was significantly higher than that in the survival group[84.0% (21/25) vs. 33.1% (39/118), P<0.05], and the arterial blood pH value (7.15±0.52 vs. 7.42±0.17, P<0.05), HCO3- concentration[(18.07±6.25) vs. (25.07±5.44) mmol/L, P<0.05], PaO2[(58.92±35.18) vs. (85.92±32.19) mm Hg (1 mm Hg=0.133 kPa), P<0.05] and PaO2/FiO2[(118.23±98.02) vs. (260.17±151.22) mm Hg, P<0.05)] in the death group were significantly lower than those in the survival group. And multivariate regression analysis indicated that the number of underlying diseases[OR=0.202, 95%CI (0.198, 0.421), P=0.003], PaO2[OR=1.203, 95%CI (1.193, 1.294), P=0.011] and PaO2/FiO2[OR=0.956, 95%CI (0.927, 0.971), P=0.008] were independent predictors of death in the patients with severe pneumonia. ConclusionsPatients who died of severe pneumonia often had severe illnesses before admission, and the number of underlying diseases and PaO2 have highly predictive value for death.
ObjectiveTo evaluate the value of parathyroid hormone (PTH) in predicting hypocalcemia at different time after thyroidectomy. MethodsThe literatures in CBM, WanFang, CNKI, VIP in Chinese, and OVID, PUBMED, EMBASE, and MEDLINE in English were searched. Hand searches and additional searches were also conducted. The studies of predicting hypocalcemia after thyroidectomy by detecting postoperative PTH at different time were selected, and the quality and tested the heterogeneity of included articles were assessed. Then the proper effect model to calculate pooled weighted sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) were selected. The summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve was performed and the area under the curve (AUC) was computed. ResultsTwenty-three articles entered this systematic review, 21 articles were English and 2 articles were Chinese. Fifteen of 23 articles were designed to be prospective cohort study (PC) and 8 of 23 articles were retrospective study (Retro). These articles were divided into two groups. Group 1 was the studies of detecting postoperative PTH in 1 hour, which included 2 012 cases (494 of them occurred hypocalcemia). Group 2 was the studies of detecting postoperative PTH between 4-12 hours, which included 693 cases (266 of them occurred hypocalcemia). The publication bias of 2 groups were smaller that founded through the literature funnel. Meta analysis showed that in addition to merge SEN, between the 2 groups with merge SPE, LR+, LR-, and AUC differences were statistically significant (P < 0.01);the forecast effect of group 1 was better than group 2, and the AUC was the largest area when the PTH value in 1 hour after operation was below 16 ng/L. ConclusionDetection of postoperative PTH value is an effective method for predicting postoperative hypocalcemia. The 1 hour after operation for detecting PTH value below 16 ng/L to predict postoperative hypocalcemia have the best effect.
ObjectiveTo investigate the predictive factors of portal vein thrombosis (PVT) before and after splenectomy and gastroesophageal devascularization for liver cirrhosis with portal hypertension. MethodsSixty-one cases of liver cirrhosis with portal hypertension who underwent splenectomy and gastroesophageal devascularization were enrolled retrospectively. The patients were divided into PVT group and non-PVT group based on the presence or absence of postoperative PVT on day 7. The clinical factors related with PVT were analyzed. ResultsThere were 25 cases in the DVT group and 36 cases in the non-DVT group. The results of univariate analysis showed that the preoperative platelet (P=0.006), activated partial thromboplastin time (P=0.048), prothrombin time (P=0.028), and international normalized ratio (P=0.029), postoperative fibrin degradation product (P=0.002) and D-dimer (P=0.014) on day 1, portal venous diameter (P=0.050) had significant differences between the DVT group and non-DVT group. The results of logistic multivariate regression analysis showed that the preoperative platelet (OR=0.966, 95% CI 0.934-1.000, P=0.048) and postoperative fibrin degradation product on day 1(OR=1.055, 95% CI 1.011-1.103, P=0.017) were correlated with the PVT. The PVT might happen when preoperative platelet was less than 34.5×109/L (sensitibity 80.6%, specificity 60.0%) or postoperative fibrin degradation product on day 1 was more than 64.75 mg/L (sensitibity 48.0%, specificity 91.7%). ConclusionPreoperative platelet and postoperative fibrin degradation product on day 1 might predict PVT after splenectomy and gastroesophageal devascularization for liver cirrhosis with portal hypertension.
ObjectiveTo evaluate the predictors of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) among teachers in 3 months after Lushan earthquake. MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted to diagnostically evaluate the psychological sequelae and GAD during 14-20 days and 85-95 days after the earthquake. The possible predictive factors of psychological sequelae were assessed by a self-made questionnaire and the GAD was assessed by the GAD symptom criterion of M.I.N.I. in 3 months. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis (ULRA, MLRA) were applied to analyze the predictors of GAD after the two-staged assessments. ResultsThere were a total of 319 teachers completed the two-staged assessments. The total response rate was 51.3%. Seventy teachers were diagnosed as GAD and the prevalence of GAD in 3 months was 21.9%. The predictive factors by ULRA included:male, older than 35 years old, having unlivable house, living in tents, sleeping difficulties, easy to feel sad, physical discomfort, loss of appetite, feeling short of social support, unable to calm down for working, feeling difficult for teaching, observing more inattention of students, and wanting to ask for a leave. The independent predictors by MLRA included:male, having unlivable house, feeling short of social support, and feeling difficult for teaching. ConclusionThe teachers have a higher likelihood of GAD after earthquake. It is essential to pay more attention to those male teachers, who feel short of social support and don't have a livable house thus to prevent the GAD at the early stage of post-earthquake.