Objective To investigate the value of procalcitonin (PCT) at admission for severity stratificaton and prognosis prediction of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and assess the ability of the combination of PCT and the validated pneumonia risk scores (PSI and CURB-65) for predicting 30-day mortality. Methods A retrospective study was performed in 150 hospitalized CAP patients admitted in the Department of Respiratory Medicine of General Hospital of Tianjin Medical University between March 2015 and March 2016. The primary end point for this study was mortality within 30 days. Sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive and negative predictive value (PPV, NPV) of PCT for assessing mortality was calculated and compared to validated pneumonia risk scores. Results In the 150 CAP patients enrolled, there were 77 males and 73 females with an average age of 58.4±16.3 years. Twelve (8%) patients died within 30 days. The non-survivors had significantly higher median PCT level (4.25 ng/mlvs. 0.24 ng/ml) and C-reactive protein (CRP) level (14.60 mg/dlvs. 5.10 mg/dl) compared with the survivors. The median PCT level was significantly higher in the patients with more severe disease assessed by two risk scoring systems. Combination of PCT with risk scores can improve prognostic value for predicting 30-day mortality of CAP. Conclusions The level of PCT at admission is more useful than the traditional biomarkers for the severity stratification and prognosis prediction of CAP. It can well determine patients at low risk of mortality from CAP. There is no advantage of PCT compared to PSI or CURB-65, so we recommend combination of PCT to risk sores to predict 30-day mortality of CAP.
Objective To evaluate the prognostic values of CURB-65 score and inflammatory factors in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Methods A retrospective study was conducted in hospitalized adult CAP patients in West China Hospital between January 1st, and December 31th, 2013. Data of CURB-65 score and serum levels of inflammatory factors (WBC, ESR, PCT, CRP, IL-6 and ALB) on admission and clinical outcomes were collected. The associations between CURB-65 score, inflammatory factors and clinical outcomes were examined. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop combined models to predict in-hospital death of CAP patients, and ROC analysis was conducted to measure and compare the prognostic values of CURB-65 score, inflammatory factors or combined models. Results A total of 505 hospitalized CAP patients were included. 81 patients died during the hospitalization and the in-hospital mortality rate was 16.0%. Possible risk factors of in-hospital death included old age, male sex, hypertension, cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases, multi-lobular pneumonic infiltration, high risk scores, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation and severe pneumonia (all P values<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that CURB-65 score, ALB and IL-6 were the independent factors in predicting in-hospital death of CAP patients and the area under curve (AUC) of them while predicting in-hospital death were 0.75 (95%CI 0.69 to 0.81), 0.75 (95%CI 0.69 to 0.81) and 0.75 (95%CI 0.69 to 0.80), respectively. ROC analysis found that ALB and IL-6 could improve the AUC of CURB-65 score significantly while predicting the in-hospital death (P<0.05). When ALB and IL-6 were added to the CURB-65 score simultaneously, the AUC was improved to 0.84 (95%CI 0.80 to 0.87). When IL-6 or ALB was added to the CURB-65 score to form a new scale, the AUC of the new scale was significantly higher than that of the CURB-65 score in predicting in-hospital death (P<0.001). Conclusion The prognostic values of CURB-65 score and inflammatory factors may be not ideal when they are used alone in hospitalized CAP patients. IL-6 and ALB may significantly improve the prognostic value of CURB-65 score in predicting in-hospital death.
ObjectiveTo compare the value of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ (APACHEⅡ) scores, the pneumonia severity index (PSI) scores), the CURB-65 scores, and serum procalcitonin (PCT) concentration in prediction of prognosis for inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and discuss the influence factors.MethodsRetrospective analysis was conducted based on the APACHEⅡ scores, the CURB-65 scores, the PSI scores and PCT concentration of hospitalized CAP patients admitted in the Department of Respiratory Medicine of First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University between January 2015 and December 2016, and within 24 hours of their admission. The end point of this study was the clinical outcome of hospitalization (recovery, improvement, exacerbation or death). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and binary logistic regression models were used to assess the ability of prognostic evaluation and determine the boundary value, to screen risk factors that influence deterioration and death in CAP patients.ResultsTwo hundred and thirty-five CAP patients were enrolled with 146 males and 89 females at an average age of (60.4±18.1) years old. All patients were divided into 2 groups: improving recovery group had 205 cases, and deteriorating group had 30 cases. The rank of areas under the ROC curve for predicting the deterioration and death risk of CAP, from big to small were APACHEⅡ(0.889), PSI (0.850), CURB-65 (0.789), and PCT (0.720). APACHEⅡ score over 11 points and PSI score over 91 points were optimal cut-off values for the prognostic assessment. Moreover, the logistic regression analysis revealed that APACHEⅡ score and PCT were independent risk factors of deterioration and death in CAP patients.ConclusionsThe better predictability of clinic outcome of CAP is APACHEⅡ score, PSI score, CURB-65 score, and PCT respectively in order, while the APACHEⅡ score and PCT concentration were independent risk factors for exacerbation and mortality in CAP patients. The predictive ability of a single PCT measurement is limited. The combination of APACHEⅡ score and PCT may increase specificity, but reduce sensitivity.