ObjectiveTo acquire the flow law of outpatient and emergency visits in a large general hospital. MethodsBy sampling monthly amount of outpatient and emergency from January 2005 to December 2013 of a large general hospital in Guangzhou, the trend of the time series was analyzed and calculated the seasonal index of the amount of hospital outpatient and emergency visits with the use of long-term trends method. ResultThe flow law of patients in the hospital outpatient and emergency was significantly affected by seasonal factors, and different month had its own variation characters. The seasonal indexes were the highest in March, July, August, November and December (seasonal index >105%), while the lowest in January, February, October (seasonal index <95%). ConclusionBased on analysis of the outpatient and emergency visits and causes with hospitals, decision makers and hospitals should make reasonable allocation of medical resources and provide evidence for the scientific decisions of hospital management. Thus, ensure the safety of patients.
ObjectiveTo establish a forecasting model for inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures and predict the trend of its variation.MethodsAccording to inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures from January 2013 to December 2018, this paper analyzed its characteristics and established the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to make a short-term quantitative forecast.ResultsA total of 4 451 patients, involving 2 861 males and 1 590 females were included. The ratio of males to females was 1.8 to 1, and the average age was 5.655. There was a significant difference in age distribution between males and females (χ2=44.363, P<0.001). The inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures were recorded monthly, with predominant peak annually, from April to June and September to October, respectively. Using the data of the training set from January 2013 to May 2018, a SARIMA model of SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model (white noise test, P>0.05) was identified to make short-term forecast for the prediction set from June 2018 to November 2018, with RMSE=8.110, MAPE=9.386, and the relative error between the predicted value and the actual value ranged from 1.61% to 8.06%.ConclusionsCompared with the actual cases, the SARIMA model fits well with good short-term prediction accuracy, and it can help provide reliable data support for a scientific forecast for the inpatient cases of pediatric limb fractures.
The brain-computer interface (BCI) based on motor imagery electroencephalography (MI-EEG) enables direct information interaction between the human brain and external devices. In this paper, a multi-scale EEG feature extraction convolutional neural network model based on time series data enhancement is proposed for decoding MI-EEG signals. First, an EEG signals augmentation method was proposed that could increase the information content of training samples without changing the length of the time series, while retaining its original features completely. Then, multiple holistic and detailed features of the EEG data were adaptively extracted by multi-scale convolution module, and the features were fused and filtered by parallel residual module and channel attention. Finally, classification results were output by a fully connected network. The application experimental results on the BCI Competition IV 2a and 2b datasets showed that the proposed model achieved an average classification accuracy of 91.87% and 87.85% for the motor imagery task, respectively, which had high accuracy and strong robustness compared with existing baseline models. The proposed model does not require complex signals pre-processing operations and has the advantage of multi-scale feature extraction, which has high practical application value.