ObjectiveTo explore the predictive factors for extubation in mechanically ventilated patients with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). MethodsMechanically ventilated adult patients with moderate to severe brain injuries admitted to the People’s Hospital of Hunan province were selected between April 2020 and March 2022. The general data, neurological function and airway protective ability of the patients were collected. The patients were divided into successful extubation and failed extubation groups based on extubation outcomes. The differences in various indicators between the two groups were compared. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the influencing factors for tracheal tube extubation in patients with moderate to severe TBI. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to analyze the predictive value of each indicator for extubation in TBI patients. ResultsA total of 263 patients with moderate to severe TBI were included in the analysis, with 183 patients in the successful extubation group and 80 patients in the failed extubation group. The successful extubation group had higher Glasgow coma scale (GCS) and cough peak flow (CPF) compared to the failed extubation group. The incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), duration of mechanical ventilation, length of ICU stay, and length of hospital stay were all lower in the successful extubation group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that the predictive factors for tracheal tube extubation in patients with moderate to severe TBI were CPF and GCS at the time of extubation. Adjusting for confounding factors, every 1 L/min increase in CPF at the time of extubation reduced the risk of extubation failure by 2% [odds ratio (OR) = 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97 - 0.99], and every 1-point increase in GCS reduced the risk of extubation failure by 12% (OR = 0.88, 95%CI 0.79 - 0.98). ROC curve analysis showed that CPF, GCS, GCS eye, and GCS motor had predictive value for tracheal tube extubation in patients with moderate to severe TBI. When patients simultaneously met the criteria of GCS≥8 (GCS motor≥5, GCS eye≥3) and CPF ≥68.5 L/min, the diagnostic value for predicting successful extubation was highest, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.946 (95%CI 0.917 - 0.975), sensitivity of 0.850, and specificity of 0.907. ConclusionCPF ≥ 68.5 L/min and GCS ≥ 8 have clinical guiding value for successful extubation in mechanically ventilated patients with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury.