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find Keyword "forecast" 3 results
  • Predictive factors for recurrence of retroperitoneal sarcoma

    ObjectiveTo summarize the predictive factors of recurrence of retroperitoneal sarcoma.MethodsThe literatures on the recurrence of retroperitoneal sarcoma at home and abroad were reviewed and analyzed.ResultsTumor size, margin negative resection, tumor grade, multifocal, and histological types were important predictors of the recurrence of retroperitoneal sarcoma. In addition, combined organ resection, diversity of tumor growth patterns, and tumor-free surgical techniques could also affect the recurrence of retroperitoneal sarcoma.ConclusionUnderstanding the predictive factors of the recurrence of retroperitoneal sarcoma is of great significance to guide surgeons to understand and recognize the disease, to reduce the recurrence of retroperitoneal sarcoma.

    Release date:2019-09-26 10:54 Export PDF Favorites Scan
  • Predictive value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in peripheral blood for complications after elective endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm

    Objective To explore the predictive value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in peripheral blood for postoperative complications of elective endovascular repair for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Methods From August 2016 to November 2021, the clinical data of patients with AAA who received endovascular isolation repair for the first time in the Department of Vascular Surgery of Beijing Hospital were retrospectively analyzed, including the basic information of the patients, comorbid diseases, and the largest diameter of AAA, preoperative blood labotry test, postoperative complications, long-term survival rate and other indicators. The optimal NLR in peripheral blood was determined, and the differences in postoperative complications and long-term survival rates between the high NLR group and the low NLR group were analysed. Results A total of 120 patients with AAA underwent endovascular isolation for the first time were included in this study, including 105 males and 15 females. The age ranged from 52 to 94 years, with an average of (73.3 ± 8.26) years. The largest diameter of abdominal aortic aneurysm was 35 to 100 mm, with an average of (58.5 ± 12.48) mm. The best cut-off value of NLR for predicting postoperative complications of AAA was 2.45 by using Yoden index screening. Those with NLR ≥2.45 were in the high NLR group (n=66), and those with NLR <2.45 were in the low NLR group (n=54). There was no statistically significant difference between the two groups in the incidence of overall complications and the incidence of sub-complications (P>0.05). The results of logistic regression analysis suggested that NLR was an independent risk factor for complications after endovascular repair of AAA (P<0.05). The median survival time of patients in the high NLR group and the low NLR group was 31.47 months and 35.28 months, respectively, and there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups (P>0.05). Conclusion NLR can be used as a reference predictor of complications after elective endovascular repair of AAA, but more research results are still needed to confirm.

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  • Analysis and prediction of the incidence, morbidity and death of leukemia in China

    Objective To analyze the prevalence of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019, predict the incidence, morbidity and mortality of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040, and provides reference for the formulation of leukemia-related prevention and treatment strategies in China. Methods Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database, the incidence, morbidity and mortality data of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected, and the rate of change and annual estimated percentage of change (EAPC) were used to describe the epidemic trend of the disease. The Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the prevalence of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040. Results In 2019, the age-standardized incidence, age-standardized prevalence and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased by 17.62%, 10.97%, and 41.56%, respectively, compared with 1990, and an average annual decrease of 1.06%, 0.89%, and 2.05%, respectively (P<0.05). From 1990 to 2019, the reduction age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate in Chinese women (EAPC was 1.56%, 1.38%, and 2.62%, respectively) was higher than that of men (EAPC was 0.61%, 0.43%, and 1.59%, respectively). In 2019, the incidence and prevalence were highest in the age group under 5 years of age, and the mortality rate was the highest in the age group over 80 years old. The prediction results of ARIMA model showed that the age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence of leukemia in China showed an increasing trend from 2020 to 2040, while the age-standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend. It is estimated that by 2040, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia will be 14.06/100 000, 108.23/100 000, and 2.83/100 000. Conclusions From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased year by year, but they were still at a high level. The prediction results show that the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of leukemia in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2040, and it is necessary to continue to strengthen the surveillance, prevention and control of leukemia in the future.

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