Objective To explore the risk factors of chronic postoperative inguinal pain (CPIP) after transabdominal preperitoneal hernia repair (TAPP), establish and verify the risk prediction model, and then evaluate the prediction effectiveness of the model. Methods The clinical data of 362 patients who received TAPP surgery was retrospectively analyzed and divided into model group (n=300) and validation group (n=62). The risk factors of CPIP in the model group were screened by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the risk prediction model was established and tested. Results The incidence of CPIP at 6 months after operation was 27.9% (101/362). Univariate analysis showed that gender (χ2= 12.055, P=0.001), age (t=–4.566, P<0.01), preoperative pain (χ2=44.686, P<0.01) and early pain at 1 week after operation (χ2=150.795, P<0.01) were related to CPIP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, preoperative pain, early pain at 1 week after operation, and history of lower abdominal surgery were independent risk predictors of CPIP. The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of the risk prediction model was calculated to be 0.933 [95%CI (0.898, 0.967)], and the optimal cut-off value was 0.129, while corresponding specificity and sensitivity were 87.6% and 91.5% respectively. The prediction accuracy, specificity and sensitivity of the model were 91.9% (57/62), 90.7% and 94.7%, respectively when the validation group data were substituted into the prediction model. Conclusion Female, age≤64 years old, preoperative pain, early pain at 1 week after operation and without history of lower abdominal surgery are independent risk factors for the incidence of CPIP after TAPP, and the risk prediction model established on this basis has good predictive efficacy, which can further guide the clinical practice.