Objective To explore the risk factors for long-term death of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and develop and validate a prediction model for long-term death. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 1013 patients diagnosed with AMI and reduced LVEF in West China Hospital of Sichuan University between January 2010 and June 2019. Using the RAND function of Excel software, patients were randomly divided into three groups, two of which were combined for the purpose of establishing the model, and the third group was used for validation of the model. The endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality, and the follow-up was until January 20th, 2021. Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the risk factors affecting the long-term death, and then a prediction model based on those risk factors was established and validated. Results During a median follow-up of 1377 days, 296 patients died. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age≥65 years [hazard ratio (HR)=1.842, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.067, 3.179), P=0.028], Killip class≥Ⅲ[HR=1.941, 95%CI (1.188, 3.170), P=0.008], N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide≥5598 pg/mL [HR=2.122, 95%CI (1.228, 3.665), P=0.007], no percutaneous coronary intervention [HR=2.181, 95%CI (1.351, 3.524), P=0.001], no use of statins [HR=2.441, 95%CI (1.338, 4.454), P=0.004], and no use of β-blockers [HR=1.671, 95%CI (1.026, 2.720), P=0.039] were independent risk factors for long-term death. The prediction model was established and patients were divided into three risk groups according to the total score, namely low-risk group (0-2), medium-risk group (4-6), and high-risk group (8-12). The results of receiver operating characteristic curve [area under curve (AUC)=0.724, 95%CI (0.680, 0.767), P<0.001], Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P=0.108), and Kaplan-Meier survival curve (P<0.001) showed that the prediction model had an efficient prediction ability, and a strong ability in discriminating different groups. The model was also shown to be valid in the validation group [AUC=0.758, 95%CI (0.703, 0.813), P<0.001]. Conclusions In patients with AMI and reduced LVEF, age≥65 years, Killip class≥Ⅲ, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide≥5598 pg/mL, no percutaneous coronary intervention, no use of statins, and no use of β-blockers are independent risk factors for long-term death. The developed risk prediction model based on these risk factors has a strong prediction ability.
ObjectivesTo evaluate the effects of Pulmonary Embolism Response Team (PERT) on treatment strategies and long-term prognosis in patients with acute pulmonary embolism before and after the implementation of the first PERT in China. Methods The official start of PERT (July 2017) was took as the cut-off point, all APE patients who attended Beijing Anzhen Hospital of Capital Medical University one year before and after this cut-off time were included through the hospital electronic medical record system. The APE patients who received traditional treatment from July 5, 2016 to July 4, 2017 were recruited in the control group (Pre-PERT group), and the APE patients who received PERT mode treatment from July 5, 2017 to July 4, 2018 were recruited as the intervention group (Post-PERT group). Treatment methods during hospitalization were compared between the two groups. The patients were followed up for one year after discharge to evaluate their anticoagulant therapy, follow-up compliance and long-term prognosis. Results A total of 108 cases in the Pre-PERT group and 102 cases in the Post-PERT group were included. There was no significant statistical difference between the two groups in age and gender (both P>0.05). Anticoagulation therapy (87.3% vs. 81.5%, P=0.251), catheter-directed treatment (3.9% vs. 2.8%, P=0.644), inferior vena cava filters (1.0% vs. 1.9%, P=1.000), surgical embolectomy (2.0% vs. 0.9%, P=0.613), systemic thrombolysis (3.9% vs. 4.6%, P=0.582) were performed in both groups with no significant differences between the two groups. The use rate of rivaroxaban in the Post-PERT group was higher than that in the Pre-PERT group at one year of discharge, and the use rate of warfarin was lower than that of the Pre-PERT group (54.5% vs. 32.5%; 43.6% vs. 59.0%, P=0.043). The anticoagulation time of the Post-PERT group was longer than that of the Pre-PERT group (11.9 months vs. 10.3 months, P<0.001). The all-cause mortality within one year, hemorrhagic events and the rate of rehospitalization due to pulmonary embolism were not significantly different between the two groups, (10.4% vs. 8.6%), (14.3% vs. 14.8%), and (1.3% vs. 2.5%, χ2=3.453, P=0.485), respectively. Conclusions APE treatment was still dominated by anticoagulation and conventional treatment at the early stage of PERT implementation, and advanced treatment (catheter-directed treatment and surgical embolectomy) is improved, it showed an expanding trend after only one year of implementation although there was no statistical difference. At follow-up, there is no increase in one-year all-cause mortality and bleeding events with a slight increase in advanced treatment after PERT implementation.