Analysis and prediction of the incidence, morbidity and death of leukemia in China_West China Medical Journal

Authors：

TAN Xiwei ¹ , WANG Shihong ¹ , WANG Shuang ¹ , CAO Rudai ¹ , DING Yuanlin ¹ ,  ZHANG Bingsong ¹ ,  YU Haibing ^1,2,3,4

1. School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
2. the first Dongguan Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
4. Dongguan Key Laboratory of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;

Corresponding author：

ZHANG Bingsong, Email: zhangbingsong@gdmu.edu.cn; YU Haibing, Email: hby616688@gdmu.edu.cn

Keywords：

Leukemia; global burden of disease; changing trend; forecasting analysis

DOI：

10.7507/1002-0179.202403043

Video：

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Objective To analyze the prevalence of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019, predict the incidence, morbidity and mortality of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040, and provides reference for the formulation of leukemia-related prevention and treatment strategies in China. Methods Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database, the incidence, morbidity and mortality data of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected, and the rate of change and annual estimated percentage of change (EAPC) were used to describe the epidemic trend of the disease. The Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the prevalence of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040. Results In 2019, the age-standardized incidence, age-standardized prevalence and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased by 17.62%, 10.97%, and 41.56%, respectively, compared with 1990, and an average annual decrease of 1.06%, 0.89%, and 2.05%, respectively (P<0.05). From 1990 to 2019, the reduction age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate in Chinese women (EAPC was 1.56%, 1.38%, and 2.62%, respectively) was higher than that of men (EAPC was 0.61%, 0.43%, and 1.59%, respectively). In 2019, the incidence and prevalence were highest in the age group under 5 years of age, and the mortality rate was the highest in the age group over 80 years old. The prediction results of ARIMA model showed that the age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence of leukemia in China showed an increasing trend from 2020 to 2040, while the age-standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend. It is estimated that by 2040, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia will be 14.06/100 000, 108.23/100 000, and 2.83/100 000. Conclusions From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased year by year, but they were still at a high level. The prediction results show that the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of leukemia in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2040, and it is necessary to continue to strengthen the surveillance, prevention and control of leukemia in the future.

Citation： TAN Xiwei, WANG Shihong, WANG Shuang, CAO Rudai, DING Yuanlin, ZHANG Bingsong, YU Haibing. Analysis and prediction of the incidence, morbidity and death of leukemia in China. West China Medical Journal, 2024, 39(9): 1427-1434. doi: 10.7507/1002-0179.202403043 Copy

1.	Whiteley AE, Price TT, Cantelli G, et al. Leukaemia: a model metastatic disease. Nat Rev Cancer, 2021, 21(7): 461-475.
2.	GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators, Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 2018, 392(18): 1789-1858.
3.	Siegel RL, Miller KD, Wagle NS, et al. Cancer statistics, 2023. CA Cancer J Clin, 2023, 73(1): 17-48.
4.	刘蓓. 急性髓系白血病的免疫治疗现状. 兰州大学学报(医学版), 2021, 47(6): 1-9.
5.	Yang X, Wang J. Precision therapy for acute myeloid leukemia. J Hematol Oncol, 2018, 11(1): 3.
6.	Wu X, Du J, Li L, et al. Bayesian age-period-cohort prediction of mortality of type 2 diabetic kidney disease in China: a modeling study. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne), 2021, 12: 767263.
7.	Chen R, Sang L, Jiang M, et al. Longitudinal hematologic and immunologic variations associated with the progression of COVID-19 patients in China. J Allergy Clin Immunol, 2020, 146(1): 89-100.
8.	Wang KW, Deng C, Li JP, et al. Hybrid methodology for tuberculosis incidence time-series forecasting based on ARIMA and a NAR neural network. Epidemiol Infect, 2017, 145(6): 1118-1129.
9.	Torre LA, Siegel RL, Ward EM, et al. Global cancer incidence and mortality rates and trends--an update. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev, 2016, 25(1): 16-27.
10.	中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会医疗应急司. 健康中国行动——癌症防治行动实施方案(2023—2030 年). 中国肿瘤, 2023, 32(12): 887-890.
11.	汤静燕. 儿童常见肿瘤诊断治疗的进步. 中国小儿血液与肿瘤杂志, 2020, 25(6): 313-315.
12.	王跃, 王恒哲, 毛开云, 等. 全球免疫细胞治疗药物开发现状与趋势. 中国生物工程杂志, 2018, 38(10): 90-102.
13.	陈云. 儿童急性淋巴细胞白血病免疫治疗进展. 中外医学研究, 2022, 20(32): 180-184.
14.	Lin X, Wang J, Huang X, et al. Global, regional, and national burdens of leukemia from 1990 to 2017: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease 2017 study. Aging (Albany NY), 2021, 13(7): 10468-10489.
15.	Malvezzi M, Carioli G, Bertuccio P, et al. European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2016 with focus on leukaemias, Ann Oncol, 2016, 27(4): 725-731.
16.	Singh GK, Siahpush M. Widening rural-urban disparities in all-cause mortality and mortality from major causes of death in the USA, 1969-2009. J Urban Health, 2014, 91(2): 272-292.
17.	Pei L, Choi JH, Liu J, et al. Genome-wide DNA methylation analysis reveals novel epigenetic changes in chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Epigenetics, 2012, 7(6): 567-578.
18.	陈继超, 崔楚平, 王艺英, 等. 云浮市 1300 家企业职业病危害现状与对策. 职业与健康, 2015, 31(13): 1859-1861,1864.
19.	Ni X, Li Z, Li X, et al. Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer incidence and access to health services among children and adolescents in China: a cross-sectional study. Lancet, 2022, 400(10357): 1020-1032.
20.	夏俊杰, 袁冬妹, 蒋伟超, 等. 甲醛接触、全基因组 DNA 甲基化与儿童急性淋巴细胞白血病关系. 中国职业医学, 2018, 45(3): 335-337,341.
21.	李会宁, 刘彦权, 付海英, 等. 室内装修污染与白血病的相关性研究. 医学信息, 2019, 32(22): 27-30.
22.	Oran B, Weisdorf DJ. Survival for older patients with acute myeloid leukemia: a population-based study. Haematologica, 2012, 97(12): 1916-1924.
23.	Koh Y, Kim I, Bae JY, et al. Prognosis of secondary acute myeloid leukemia is affected by the type of the preceding hematologic disorders and the presence of trisomy 8. Jpn J Clin Oncol, 2010, 40(11): 1037-1045.
24.	陈伟锋, 宇传华, 胡樱. 1990—2017 年中国白血病疾病负担分析. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2021, 29(10): 797-800.
25.	杨丽, 彭瑞, 叶晓雯. 1990—2019 年中国白血病归因于各类危险因素的疾病负担分析与模型预测. 现代预防医学, 2023, 50(2): 205-209, 256.
26.	Greaves MF. Aetiology of acute leukaemia. Lancet, 1997, 349(9048): 344-349.
27.	国家统计局, 国务院第七次全国人口普查领导小组办公室. 第七次全国人口普查公报(第五号)——人口年龄构成情况. 中国统计, 2021(5): 10-11.
28.	Devine SM, Larson RA. Acute leukemia in adults: recent developments in diagnosis and treatment. CA Cancer J Clin, 1994, 44(6): 326-352.
29.	Daver N, Alotaibi AS, Bücklein V, et al. T-cell-based immunotherapy of acute myeloid leukemia: current concepts and future developments. Leukemia, 2021, 35(7): 1843-1863.
30.	Brunning RD. Classification of acute leukemias. Semin Diagn Pathol, 2003, 20(3): 142-153.

1. Whiteley AE, Price TT, Cantelli G, et al. Leukaemia: a model metastatic disease. Nat Rev Cancer, 2021, 21(7): 461-475.
2. GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators, Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 2018, 392(18): 1789-1858.
3. Siegel RL, Miller KD, Wagle NS, et al. Cancer statistics, 2023. CA Cancer J Clin, 2023, 73(1): 17-48.
4. 刘蓓. 急性髓系白血病的免疫治疗现状. 兰州大学学报(医学版), 2021, 47(6): 1-9.
5. Yang X, Wang J. Precision therapy for acute myeloid leukemia. J Hematol Oncol, 2018, 11(1): 3.
6. Wu X, Du J, Li L, et al. Bayesian age-period-cohort prediction of mortality of type 2 diabetic kidney disease in China: a modeling study. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne), 2021, 12: 767263.
7. Chen R, Sang L, Jiang M, et al. Longitudinal hematologic and immunologic variations associated with the progression of COVID-19 patients in China. J Allergy Clin Immunol, 2020, 146(1): 89-100.
8. Wang KW, Deng C, Li JP, et al. Hybrid methodology for tuberculosis incidence time-series forecasting based on ARIMA and a NAR neural network. Epidemiol Infect, 2017, 145(6): 1118-1129.
9. Torre LA, Siegel RL, Ward EM, et al. Global cancer incidence and mortality rates and trends--an update. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev, 2016, 25(1): 16-27.
10. 中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会医疗应急司. 健康中国行动——癌症防治行动实施方案(2023—2030 年). 中国肿瘤, 2023, 32(12): 887-890.
11. 汤静燕. 儿童常见肿瘤诊断治疗的进步. 中国小儿血液与肿瘤杂志, 2020, 25(6): 313-315.
12. 王跃, 王恒哲, 毛开云, 等. 全球免疫细胞治疗药物开发现状与趋势. 中国生物工程杂志, 2018, 38(10): 90-102.
13. 陈云. 儿童急性淋巴细胞白血病免疫治疗进展. 中外医学研究, 2022, 20(32): 180-184.
14. Lin X, Wang J, Huang X, et al. Global, regional, and national burdens of leukemia from 1990 to 2017: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease 2017 study. Aging (Albany NY), 2021, 13(7): 10468-10489.
15. Malvezzi M, Carioli G, Bertuccio P, et al. European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2016 with focus on leukaemias, Ann Oncol, 2016, 27(4): 725-731.
16. Singh GK, Siahpush M. Widening rural-urban disparities in all-cause mortality and mortality from major causes of death in the USA, 1969-2009. J Urban Health, 2014, 91(2): 272-292.
17. Pei L, Choi JH, Liu J, et al. Genome-wide DNA methylation analysis reveals novel epigenetic changes in chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Epigenetics, 2012, 7(6): 567-578.
18. 陈继超, 崔楚平, 王艺英, 等. 云浮市 1300 家企业职业病危害现状与对策. 职业与健康, 2015, 31(13): 1859-1861,1864.
19. Ni X, Li Z, Li X, et al. Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer incidence and access to health services among children and adolescents in China: a cross-sectional study. Lancet, 2022, 400(10357): 1020-1032.
20. 夏俊杰, 袁冬妹, 蒋伟超, 等. 甲醛接触、全基因组 DNA 甲基化与儿童急性淋巴细胞白血病关系. 中国职业医学, 2018, 45(3): 335-337,341.
21. 李会宁, 刘彦权, 付海英, 等. 室内装修污染与白血病的相关性研究. 医学信息, 2019, 32(22): 27-30.
22. Oran B, Weisdorf DJ. Survival for older patients with acute myeloid leukemia: a population-based study. Haematologica, 2012, 97(12): 1916-1924.
23. Koh Y, Kim I, Bae JY, et al. Prognosis of secondary acute myeloid leukemia is affected by the type of the preceding hematologic disorders and the presence of trisomy 8. Jpn J Clin Oncol, 2010, 40(11): 1037-1045.
24. 陈伟锋, 宇传华, 胡樱. 1990—2017 年中国白血病疾病负担分析. 中国慢性病预防与控制, 2021, 29(10): 797-800.
25. 杨丽, 彭瑞, 叶晓雯. 1990—2019 年中国白血病归因于各类危险因素的疾病负担分析与模型预测. 现代预防医学, 2023, 50(2): 205-209, 256.
26. Greaves MF. Aetiology of acute leukaemia. Lancet, 1997, 349(9048): 344-349.
27. 国家统计局, 国务院第七次全国人口普查领导小组办公室. 第七次全国人口普查公报(第五号)——人口年龄构成情况. 中国统计, 2021(5): 10-11.
28. Devine SM, Larson RA. Acute leukemia in adults: recent developments in diagnosis and treatment. CA Cancer J Clin, 1994, 44(6): 326-352.
29. Daver N, Alotaibi AS, Bücklein V, et al. T-cell-based immunotherapy of acute myeloid leukemia: current concepts and future developments. Leukemia, 2021, 35(7): 1843-1863.
30. Brunning RD. Classification of acute leukemias. Semin Diagn Pathol, 2003, 20(3): 142-153.

West China Medical Journal

Analysis and prediction of the incidence, morbidity and death of leukemia in China

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