TAN Xiwei 1 , WANG Shihong 1 , WANG Shuang 1 , CAO Rudai 1 , DING Yuanlin 1 , ZHANG Bingsong 1 , YU Haibing 1,2,3,4
  • 1. School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
  • 2. the first Dongguan Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
  • 3. State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
  • 4. Dongguan Key Laboratory of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
ZHANG Bingsong, Email: zhangbingsong@gdmu.edu.cn; YU Haibing, Email: hby616688@gdmu.edu.cn
Leukemia; global burden of disease; changing trend; forecasting analysis
10.7507/1002-0179.202403043
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Objective  To analyzes the prevalence of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019, predicts the incidence, morbidity and mortality of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040, and provides reference for the formulation of leukemia-related prevention and treatment strategies in China. Methods  Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database, the incidence, morbidity and mortality data of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected, and the rate of change and annual estimated percentage of change (EAPC) were used to describe the epidemic trend of the disease. The Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the prevalence of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040. Results  In 2019, the standardized incidence of leukemia in China was 10.47/100 000, the standardized prevalence was 69.98/100 000, and the standardized mortality rate was 3.67/100 000, a decrease of 17.62%, 10.97%, and 41.56%, respectively, compared with 1990, and an average annual decrease of 1.06%, 0.89%, and 2.05%, respectively (P<0.05). From 1990 to 2019, the reduction rate of standardized incidence, standardized prevalence and standardized mortality rate in Chinese women (EAPC was 1.56%, 1.38%, and 2.62%, respectively) was higher than that of men (EAPC was 0.61%, 0.43%, and 1.59%, respectively). In 2019, the incidence and prevalence were highest in the age group under 5 years of age, and the mortality rate was the highest in the age group over 80 years old. The prediction results of ARIMA model showed that the standardized incidence and prevalence of leukemia in China showed an increasing trend from 2020 to 2040, while the standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend. It is estimated that by 2040, the standardized incidence, standardized prevalence, and standardized mortality rate of leukemia will be 14.06/100 000, 108.23/100 000, and 2.83/100 000. Conclusions  From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence, standardized prevalence and mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased year by year, but they were still at a high level. The prediction results show that the standardized incidence and prevalence of leukemia in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2040, and it is necessary to continue to strengthen the surveillance, prevention and control of leukemia in the future.