YANG Bo 1 , BAI Yue 1 , LANG Lili 1 , CAO Qun 1 , ZHU Gongjian 1 , ZHUANG Leiyun 2 , SUN Daqiang 3
  • 1. Department of Thoracic Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center Gansu Hospital, Lanzhou, 730050, P. R. China;
  • 2. Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, 730000, P. R. China;
  • 3. Department of Thoracic Surgery, Tianjin Chest Hospital, Tianjin, 300222, P. R. China;
BAI Yue, Email: surrealby@163.com
Esophageal cancer; Respiratory failure; LASSO-Logistic regression; Prediction model
10.7507/1007-4848.202407020
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Objective To explore the risk factors of postoperative respiratory failure (RF) in patients with esophageal cancer, construct a predictive model based on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logistic regression, and visualize the constructed model. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients with esophageal cancer who underwent surgical treatment in the Department of Thoracic Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center Gansu Hospital from 2020 to 2023. Patients were divided into a RF group and a non-RF (NRF) group according to whether RF occurred after surgery. Clinical data of the two groups were collected, and LASSO-logistic regression was used to optimize feature selection and construct the predictive model. The model was internally validated by repeated sampling 1000 times based on the Bootstrap method. Results A total of 217 patients were included, among which 24 were in the RF group, including 22 males and 2 females, with an average age of (63.33±9.10) years; 193 were in the NRF group, including 161 males and 32 females, with an average age of (62.14±8.44) years. LASSO-logistic regression analysis showed that the percentage of forced expiratory volume in one second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) to predicted value (FEV1/FVC%pred) [OR=0.944, 95%CI (0.897, 0.993), P=0.026], postoperative anastomotic fistula [OR=4.106, 95%CI (1.457, 11.575), P=0.008], and postoperative lung infection [OR=1.329, 95%CI (1.373, 10.388), P=0.010] were risk factors for postoperative RF in patients with esophageal cancer. Based on the above risk factors, a predictive model was constructed, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.819 [95%CI (0.737, 0.901)]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the calibration curve showed that the model had good goodness of fit (P=0.527). The decision curve showed that the model had good clinical net benefit when the threshold probability was between 5% and 50%. Conclusion: FEV1/FVC%pred, postoperative anastomotic fistula, and postoperative lung infection are risk factors for postoperative RF in patients with esophageal cancer. The predictive model constructed based on LASSO-logistic regression analysis is expected to help medical staff screen high-risk patients for early individualized intervention.