JIANG Jie , LIU Feng , WANG Bo , WANG Qin , ZHONG Jian
  • Department of Thoracic Surgery, The Affiliated Brain Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 210029, P. R. China;
LIU Feng, Email: 1162014036@qq.com; ZHONG Jian, Email: 1162014036@qq.com
Computed tomography; tumor markers; pulmonary nodules; poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma; predictive model; nomogram
10.7507/1007-4848.202408069
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Objective To establish and validate a predictive model for solid and partially solid lung nodules as poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma based on CT imaging and tumor marker results. Methods Patients who underwent lung nodule surgery at the Department of Thoracic Surgery, the Affiliated Brain Hospital of Nanjing Medical University in 2023 were selected and randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3. Patient CT features, including average density value, maximum diameter, pleural indentation sign, and bronchial inflation sign, as well as patient tumor marker results, were collected. Based on postoperative pathological results, patients were divided into a poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma group and a non-poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma group. Univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis were performed on the training set to establish the predictive model. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the model's discriminability, the calibration curve to assess the model's consistency, and the decision curve to evaluate the clinical value of the model, which was then validated in the validation set. Results A total of 299 patients were included, with 103 males and 196 females, with a median age of 57 (51.00, 67.25) years; 211 patients in the training set and 88 patients in the validation set. Multivariate analysis showed that carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) value [OR=1.476, 95%CI (1.184, 1.983), P=0.002], cytokeratin 19 fragment antigen (CYFRA21-1) value [OR=1.388, 95%CI (1.084, 1.993), P=0.035], maximum tumor diameter [OR=6.233, 95%CI (1.069, 15.415), P=0.017], and average CT value [OR=1.083, 95%CI (1.020, 1.194), P=0.040] were independent risk factors for solid and partially solid lung nodules as poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma. Based on this, a predictive model was constructed with an area under the ROC curve of 0.896 [95%CI (0.810, 0.988)], a maximum Youden index corresponding cut-off value of 0.103, sensitivity of 0.936, and specificity of 0.750. Using the Bootstrap method for 1000 samplings, the calibration curve predicted probability was consistent with actual risk. Decision curve analysis indicated positive benefits across all prediction probabilities, demonstrating good clinical value. Conclusion For patients with solid and partially solid lung nodules, preoperative use of CT to measure tumor average density value and maximum diameter, combined with tumor markers CEA and CYFRA21-1 values, can effectively predict whether it is poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma, allowing for early intervention.