Prognostic prediction model based on 199 cases of gastric squamous cell carcinoma–nomogram_CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY

Authors：

ZHANG Xiaotian ¹ , CHENG Zhiyuan ¹ , ZHANG Zifan ¹ , ZHANG Ling ² , LIN Han ² , XIN Lei ² , WANG Tianjiao ² , MENG Qianqian ² , MA Jiayi ² ,  WANG Luowei ²

1. College of Basic Medical Sciences, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, P. R. China;
2. Department of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, P. R. China;

Corresponding author：

WANG Luowei, Email: wangluoweimd@126.com

Keywords：

gastric squamous cell carcinoma; prognosis analysis; nomogram; SEER database

DOI：

10.7507/1007-9424.202004068

Video：

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Objective To investigate the prognostic factors of primary gastric squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and develop a nomogram for predicting the survival of gastric SCC.Methods Data of 199 cases of primary gastric SCC from 2004 to 2015 were collected in the National Cancer Institute SEER database by SEER Stat 8.3.5 software. X-tile software was used to determine the best cut-off value of the age, SPSS 25.0 software was used to analyze the prognostic factors of gastric SCC and draw a Kaplan-Meier curve, and then the Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis was performed to obtain independent prognostic factors of gastric SCC. We used R studio software to visualize the model and draw a nomogram. C-index was used to evaluate the prediction effect of the nomogram. Bootstrap analyses with 1 000 resamples were applied to complete the internal verification of the nomogram.Results Among the 199 patients, survival rates for 1-, 3-, and 5-year were 40.7%, 22.4%, and 15.4%, respectively. Age (χ²=6.886, P=0.009), primary site (χ²=14.918, P=0.037), race (χ²=7.668, P=0.022), surgery (χ²=16.523, P<0.001), histologic type (χ²=9.372, P=0.009), T stage (χ²=11.639, P=0.009), and M stage (χ²=31.091, P<0.001) had a significant correlation with survival time of patients. The results of the Cox proportional hazard regression model showed that, age [HR=1.831, 95%CI was (1.289, 2.601)], primary site [HR=1.105, 95%CI was (1.019, 1.199)], M stage [HR=2.222, 95%CI was (1.552, 3.179)], and surgery [HR=0.561, 95%CI was (0.377, 0.835)] were independent prognostic factors affecting the survival of gastric SCC. Four independent prognostic factors contributed to constructing a nomogram with a C-index of 0.700.Conclusion In this research, a reliable predictive model is constructed and drawn into a nomogram, which can be used for clinical reference.

Citation： ZHANG Xiaotian, CHENG Zhiyuan, ZHANG Zifan, ZHANG Ling, LIN Han, XIN Lei, WANG Tianjiao, MENG Qianqian, MA Jiayi, WANG Luowei. Prognostic prediction model based on 199 cases of gastric squamous cell carcinoma–nomogram. CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY, 2021, 28(1): 27-32. doi: 10.7507/1007-9424.202004068 Copy

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5.	Duggan MA, Anderson WF, Altekruse S, et al. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and pathology: toward strengthening the critical relationship. Am J Surg Pathol, 2016, 40(12): e94-e102.
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14.	Guo F, Kuo YF, Shih YCT, et al. Trends in breast cancer mortality by stage at diagnosis among young women in the United States. Cancer, 2018, 124(17): 3500-3509.
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18.	Dong C, Jiang M, Tan Y, et al. The clinicopathological features and prognostic factors of gastric squamous cell carcinoma. Medicine (Baltimore), 2016, 95(34): e4720.
19.	王文军, 何雷, 李佳嘉, 等. 胃癌组织中 CD26 的表达与临床病理特征及预后的相关性. 临床与实验病理学杂志, 2020, 36(2): 148-153.
20.	王胤奎, 李子禹, 金成根, 等. 北京大学肿瘤医院残胃上的癌临床病理特征及预后相关因素分析. 中华胃肠外科杂志, 2018, 21(5): 522-528.
21.	刘金禄, 覃新干, 利长华, 等. 胃癌 No.14v 组淋巴结转移的危险因素及预后分析. 中国癌症防治杂志, 2020, 12(1): 69-74.
22.	Zhou R, Zhang J, Sun H, et al. Comparison of three lymph node classifications for survival prediction in distant metastatic gastric cancer. Int J Surg, 2016, 35: 165-171.
23.	宋书彬, 刘宏刚, 薛英威. 进展期胃癌患者预后营养指数的临床意义. 中华胃肠外科杂志, 2018, 21(2): 180-184.
24.	Yoshikawa T. Esophagogastric junction cancer in the TNM classification. Nihon Geka Gakkai Zasshi, 2015, 116(1): 35-39.
25.	Cancer Genome Atlas Research Network. Integrated genomic characterization of oesophageal carcinoma. Nature, 2017, 541(7636): 169-175.
26.	Zhong Q, Chen QY, Li P, et al. Prediction of conditional probability of survival after surgery for gastric cancer: a study based on eastern and western large data sets. Surgery, 2018, 163(6): 1307-1316.
27.	Arsoniadis EG, Marmor S, Diep GK, et al. Survival rates for patients with resected gastric adenocarcinoma finally have increased in the United States. Ann Surg Oncol, 2017, 24(11): 3361-3367.

1. Torre LA, Bray F, Siegel RL, et al. Global cancer statistics, 2012. CA Cancer J Clin, 2015, 65(2): 87-108.
2. González-Sánchez JA, Vitón R, Collantes E, et al. Primary squamous cell carcinoma of the stomach. Clin Med Insights Oncol, 2017, 11: 1179554916686076.
3. 董淑晓, 訾力, 亓健. 原发性胃鳞癌的临床病理特点. 中国临床医生, 2011, 39(11): 42-43.
4. Segura S, Pender J, Dodge J, et al. Primary squamous cell carcinoma of the stomach: a case report and review of the literature. Conn Med, 2016, 80(4): 209-212.
5. Duggan MA, Anderson WF, Altekruse S, et al. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and pathology: toward strengthening the critical relationship. Am J Surg Pathol, 2016, 40(12): e94-e102.
6. Gao S, Chen D, Huang L, et al. Primary squamous cell carcinoma of the stomach: a case report and literature review. Int J Clin Exp Pathol, 2015, 8(8): 9667-9671.
7. Guzman Rojas P, Parikh J, Vishnubhotla P, et al. Primary gastric squamous cell carcinoma. Cureus, 2018, 10(3): e2389.
8. Hwang SH, Lee JH, Kim K, et al. Primary squamous cell carcinoma of the stomach: a case report. Oncol Lett, 2014, 8(5): 2122-2124.
9. Patnayak R, Reddy V, Radhakrishnan, et al. Primary squamous cell carcinoma of stomach: a rare entity - case report and brief review of literature. J Surg Tech Case Rep, 2015, 7(2): 45-47.
10. Pan YC, Jia ZF, Cao DH, et al. Preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) could independently predict overall survival of resectable gastric cancer patients. Medicine (Baltimore), 2018, 97(52): e13896.
11. Howard JH, Hiles JM, Leung AM, et al. Race influences stage-specific survival in gastric cancer. Am Surg, 2015, 81(3): 259-267.
12. Jin H, Pinheiro PS, Callahan KE, et al. Examining the gastric cancer survival gap between Asians and whites in the United States. Gastric Cancer, 2017, 20(4): 573-582.
13. Chen J, Chen J, Xu Y, et al. Impact of age on the prognosis of operable gastric cancer patients: an analysis based on SEER Database. Medicine (Baltimore), 2016, 95(24): e3944.
14. Guo F, Kuo YF, Shih YCT, et al. Trends in breast cancer mortality by stage at diagnosis among young women in the United States. Cancer, 2018, 124(17): 3500-3509.
15. Jin JJ, Wang W, Dai FX, et al. Marital status and survival in patients with gastric cancer. Cancer Med, 2016, 5(8): 1821-1829.
16. Qiu M, Yang D, Xu R. Impact of marital status on survival of gastric adenocarcinoma patients: results from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database. Sci Rep, 2016, 6: 21098.
17. Zhang J, Gan L, Wu Z, et al. The influence of marital status on the stage at diagnosis, treatment, and survival of adult patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study. Oncotarget, 2017, 8(14): 22385-22405.
18. Dong C, Jiang M, Tan Y, et al. The clinicopathological features and prognostic factors of gastric squamous cell carcinoma. Medicine (Baltimore), 2016, 95(34): e4720.
19. 王文军, 何雷, 李佳嘉, 等. 胃癌组织中 CD26 的表达与临床病理特征及预后的相关性. 临床与实验病理学杂志, 2020, 36(2): 148-153.
20. 王胤奎, 李子禹, 金成根, 等. 北京大学肿瘤医院残胃上的癌临床病理特征及预后相关因素分析. 中华胃肠外科杂志, 2018, 21(5): 522-528.
21. 刘金禄, 覃新干, 利长华, 等. 胃癌 No.14v 组淋巴结转移的危险因素及预后分析. 中国癌症防治杂志, 2020, 12(1): 69-74.
22. Zhou R, Zhang J, Sun H, et al. Comparison of three lymph node classifications for survival prediction in distant metastatic gastric cancer. Int J Surg, 2016, 35: 165-171.
23. 宋书彬, 刘宏刚, 薛英威. 进展期胃癌患者预后营养指数的临床意义. 中华胃肠外科杂志, 2018, 21(2): 180-184.
24. Yoshikawa T. Esophagogastric junction cancer in the TNM classification. Nihon Geka Gakkai Zasshi, 2015, 116(1): 35-39.
25. Cancer Genome Atlas Research Network. Integrated genomic characterization of oesophageal carcinoma. Nature, 2017, 541(7636): 169-175.
26. Zhong Q, Chen QY, Li P, et al. Prediction of conditional probability of survival after surgery for gastric cancer: a study based on eastern and western large data sets. Surgery, 2018, 163(6): 1307-1316.
27. Arsoniadis EG, Marmor S, Diep GK, et al. Survival rates for patients with resected gastric adenocarcinoma finally have increased in the United States. Ann Surg Oncol, 2017, 24(11): 3361-3367.

CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY

Prognostic prediction model based on 199 cases of gastric squamous cell carcinoma–nomogram

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