Analysis of the trend of changes in the liver cancer burden attributed to drinking in China from 1990 to 2019_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

LIU Shanshan ^1,2 , HE Yujing ¹ , LI Chuyi ¹ , ZHENG Ying ¹ , YU Xiaohui ¹ , LI Bin ¹ ,  LU Lixia ¹

1. Department of Gastroenterology, 940 Hospital of the Joint Logistics Support Force of the People’s Liberation Army of China, Lanzhou 730050, P. R. China;
2. The First Clinical Medical School, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;

Corresponding author：

LU Lixia, Email: 584778162@qq.com

Keywords：

Drinking; Liver cancer; Disease burden; China

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.202309068

Video：

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Objective To analyze the trend of changes in the burden of liver cancer diseases attributed to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods Data on liver cancer burden attributed to drinking in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the global burden of disease 2019. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden, and age-period-cohort model was used to evaluate age, period, and cohort effects. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate of liver cancer attributable to drinking among the total population, men and women showed a downward trend. The AAPC was −2.52% (95%CI −2.83% to −2.21%), 3.26% (95%CI −3.62% to −2.89%) and −2.24% (95%CI −2.61% to −1.86%), respectively; The standardized mortality rates showed a decreasing trend, with AAPC values of −2.86% (95%CI −3.46% to −2.26%), −3.48% (95%CI −4.20% to −2.76%), and −2.67% (95%CI −2.99% to −2.34%), respectively; The standardized DALY rates showed a downward trend, with AAPC values of −3.09% (95%CI −3.65% to −2.53%), −2.92% (95%CI −3.25% to −2.58%), and −3.77 (95%CI −4.21% to −3.31%), respectively. The trend changes were statistically significant (P<0.05). From 1990 to 2019, the overall risk of liver cancer incidence and death attributed to drinking in China, both in males and females, showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing with age; As the period increased, both the overall population and the male population showed a downward trend, followed by an upward trend, while the female population remained relatively stable; The lower the risk of liver cancer incidence and death attributed to drinking as the queue progressed. Conclusion The standardized incidence rate, mortality and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to drinking in China are generally declining, we should strengthen health education and early diagnosis and treatment for both male and elderly people to reduce the burden of liver cancer.

Citation： LIU Shanshan, HE Yujing, LI Chuyi, ZHENG Ying, YU Xiaohui, LI Bin, LU Lixia. Analysis of the trend of changes in the liver cancer burden attributed to drinking in China from 1990 to 2019. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2024, 24(7): 776-782. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.202309068 Copy

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13.	Rosenberg PS. A new age-period-cohort model for cancer surveillance research. Stat Methods Med Res, 2019, 28(10-11): 3363-3391.
14.	姬卫东. 年龄-时期-队列模型在部分慢性传染性疾病的应用. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆医科大学, 2021.
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26.	马恒敏, 李晓, 韩洪冰, 等. 2007—2021年山东省淮河流域癌症早诊早治项目筛查结果初步分析. 中国肿瘤, 2022, 31(10): 759-765.
27.	单天昊, 安澜, 徐梦圆, 等. 2020年全球肝癌和胆囊癌发病死亡分析. 肝癌电子杂志, 2022, 9(4): 46-51.
28.	张戈, 付建成. 抗战时期陕甘宁边区的群众医疗卫生政策及其实践—以边区疫病防治为中心的分析. 西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2021, 51(3): 46-53.
29.	王秋童, 胡亚男, 杨晓莹, 等. 中国4省农村地区肝癌预防知信行变化情况. 中国健康教育, 2023, 39(4): 298-304.
30.	姜洁, 钱姣, 朱立国, 等. 江苏省2010年和2020年乙型肝炎血清流行病学特征分析. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2023, 27(2): 238-243.
31.	陈倩倩, 芮法娟, 倪文婧, 等. 原发性肝癌的流行病学及其危险因素研究进展. 中国全科医学, 2024, 27(6): 637-642.

1. Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, et al. Global cancer statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin, 2021, 71(3): 209-249.
2. Zheng RS, Zhang SW, Zeng HM. Cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2016. J Natl Cancer Cent, 2022, 2: 1-9.
3. Pimpin L, Cortez-Pinto H, Negro F, et al. Burden of liver disease in Europe: epidemiology and analysis of risk factors to identify prevention policies. J Hepatol, 2018, 69(3): 718-735.
4. Papadimitriou N, Markozannes G, Kanellopoulou A, et al. An umbrella review of the evidence associating diet and cancer risk at 11 anatomical sites. Nat Commun, 2021, 12(1): 4579.
5. Maucort-Boulch D, de Martel C, Franceschi S, et al. Fraction and incidence of liver cancer attributable to hepatitis B and C viruses worldwide. Int J Cancer, 2018, 142(12): 2471-2477.
6. He F, Sha Y, Wang B. Relationship between alcohol consumption and the risks of liver cancer, esophageal cancer, and gastric cancer in China: meta-analysis based on case-control studies. Medicine (Baltimore), 2021, 100(33): e26982.
7. GBD 2019 Viewpoint Collaborators. Five insights from the global burden of disease study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1135-1159.
8. GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1223-1249.
9. Kim HJ, Fay MP, Feuer EJ, et al. Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates. Stat Med, 2000, 19(3): 335-351.
10. 李辉章, 杜灵彬. Joinpoint回归模型在肿瘤流行病学时间趋势分析中的应用. 中华预防医学杂志, 2020, 54(8): 908-912.
11. Xu D, Hu J, Wang S, et al. Trends in the prevalence of hypertensive heart disease in china from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis. Front Public Health, 2022, 10: 833345.
12. 郑荣寿, 陈万青. 基于贝叶斯方法的年龄-时期-队列预测模型的介绍. 中华预防医学杂志, 2012, 46(7): 648-650.
13. Rosenberg PS. A new age-period-cohort model for cancer surveillance research. Stat Methods Med Res, 2019, 28(10-11): 3363-3391.
14. 姬卫东. 年龄-时期-队列模型在部分慢性传染性疾病的应用. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆医科大学, 2021.
15. 刘俊生, 武勇杰, 原悦. 人口老龄化、公共支出与生态可持续. 经济问题, 2023, (4): 37-44.
16. 王鹏举. 1990-2019年我国肝癌发病与死亡趋势及预测研究. 兰州: 兰州大学, 2021.
17. Liu Z, Song C, Suo C, et al. Alcohol consumption and hepatocellular carcinoma: novel insights from a prospective cohort study and nonlinear Mendelian randomization analysis. BMC Med, 2022, 20(1): 413.
18. Im PK, Millwood IY, Kartsonaki C, et al. Alcohol drinking and risks of total and site-specific cancers in China: a 10-year prospective study of 0.5 million adults. Int J Cancer, 2021, 149(3): 522-534.
19. Zhang Y, Li ZY, Shen QM, et al. A prospective cohort study of cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking and liver cancer incidence in Chinese men. J Dig Dis, 2022, 23(8-9): 527-534.
20. Park H, Shin SK, Joo I, et al. Systematic review with meta-analysis: low-level alcohol consumption and the risk of liver cancer. Gut Liver, 2020, 14(6): 792-807.
21. 曾红梅, 蔡建强. 中国肝癌诊治现状再思考. 肝癌电子杂志, 2021, 8(2): 23-25.
22. 赫捷, 陈万青, 沈洪兵, 等. 中国人群肝癌筛查指南(2022, 北京). 中国肿瘤, 2022, 31(8): 587-631.
23. Cao M, Li H, Sun D, et al. Cancer burden of major cancers in China: a need for sustainable actions. Cancer Commun (Lond), 2020, 40(5): 205-210.
24. Shi JF, Cao M, Wang Y, et al. Is it possible to halve the incidence of liver cancer in China by 2050. Int J Cancer, 2021, 148(5): 1051-1065.
25. 王世越, 董晨, 常楚迪, 等. 中国原发性肝癌基层筛查的机遇与挑战. 中国全科医学, 2023, 26(36): 4498-4504, 4520.
26. 马恒敏, 李晓, 韩洪冰, 等. 2007—2021年山东省淮河流域癌症早诊早治项目筛查结果初步分析. 中国肿瘤, 2022, 31(10): 759-765.
27. 单天昊, 安澜, 徐梦圆, 等. 2020年全球肝癌和胆囊癌发病死亡分析. 肝癌电子杂志, 2022, 9(4): 46-51.
28. 张戈, 付建成. 抗战时期陕甘宁边区的群众医疗卫生政策及其实践—以边区疫病防治为中心的分析. 西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2021, 51(3): 46-53.
29. 王秋童, 胡亚男, 杨晓莹, 等. 中国4省农村地区肝癌预防知信行变化情况. 中国健康教育, 2023, 39(4): 298-304.
30. 姜洁, 钱姣, 朱立国, 等. 江苏省2010年和2020年乙型肝炎血清流行病学特征分析. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2023, 27(2): 238-243.
31. 陈倩倩, 芮法娟, 倪文婧, 等. 原发性肝癌的流行病学及其危险因素研究进展. 中国全科医学, 2024, 27(6): 637-642.

Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Analysis of the trend of changes in the liver cancer burden attributed to drinking in China from 1990 to 2019

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