Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality trends of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019, and to evaluate the impact of age, period, and cohort on their long-term trends. Methods The joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort model were used to analysis. The annual percent change (APC) and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were used to analyze the incidence and mortality of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019. The influence of age, period and cohort on the incidence and mortality of falls were analyzed. Results The standardized incidence and mortality rates of falls among the elderly in China showed fluctuating upward trends from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC=1.929%, 1.535%, P<0.001), The increase rate of falls incidence was higher in men than that in women (AAPC=1.928%, 1.923%, P<0.001), and the increase rate of falls mortality was lower in men than that in women (AAPC=1.407%, 1.562%, P<0.001). The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the age effect and period effect coefficients of incidence and mortality of falls in Chinese elderly men and women showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, while the cohort effect coefficients showed an overall downward trend. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the age standardized incidence and mortality rate of falls among the elderly in China show fluctuating upward trends. The incidence of falls in elderly women is higher than that in men, and the mortality rate of falls in elderly men is higher than that in women. It is recommended to strengthen the prevention work for falls in the oldest old, the incidence of falls in elderly women, and the mortality of falls in elderly men.

Citation： WANG Yue, LIU Lurong. Trends and age-period-cohort model analysis of incidence and mortality of falls among elderly in China from 1990 to 2019. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2024, 24(7): 783-791. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.202312175 Copy