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find Keyword "Joinpoint model" 2 results
  • The trend of muscle and tendon injuries in China from 2005 to 2019: an age-time-cohort analysis

    ObjectiveTo analyze the prevalence of muscle and tendon injuries in Chinese from 2005 to 2019. MethodsUsing Joinpoint regression model and age-time-cohort model, the average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to analyze the incidence of muscle and tendon injury in Chinese from 2005 to 2019. The influence of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of muscle and tendon injury was analyzed by sex. ResultsFrom 2005 to 2019, the incidence of muscle and tendon injury in Chinese residents increased (AAPC=2.0%, P<0.05), and the AAPC of females was higher than that of males (AAPC values were 2.1% and 1.9%, respectively, P<0.05). The results of age-time-cohort model showed that the age effect, period effect and cohort effect coefficient were statistically significant. The age effect and cohort effect coefficient fluctuated, and the period effect coefficient increased continuously. The period effect is dominant in three effects. ConclusionThe incidence of muscle and tendon injuries in Chinese residents has increased rapidly. Children aged 5 to 9, people aged 20 to 29 and elderly women aged 85 to 94 are the key groups.

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  • Trends in Chinese esophageal cancer burden of disease due to high alcohol use and comparative analysis of males and females from 1990 to 2019

    Objective To integrate and analyse the burden of disease of oesophageal cancer due to alcohol consumption and the differences between males and females in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the trend of change in the burden of disease from 1990 to 2019, in order to improve its prevention and treatment strategies. Methods Data on the burden of disease of oesophageal cancer due to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database and integrated and analysed, and the corresponding trends were analysed by the Joinpoint regression model using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The grey prediction model [GM (1, 1)] was used to predict the disease burden status of oesophageal cancer attributable to alcohol consumption in China from 2020 to 2029. Results Oesophageal cancer attributable to tobacco, alcohol consumption, high BMI, and insufficient fruit and vegetable intake accounted for the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth largest number of oesophageal cancer deaths in 2019 in China, respectively. In terms of gender, the number of deaths and the standardised mortality rate of males in 2019 were 18.97 and 20.00 times higher than those of females, respectively; the number of DALYs and the standardised DALYs rate of females in 2019 were 33.08 and 24.78 times higher than those of females, suggesting that the disease burden of oesophageal cancer due to alcohol consumption is higher among females in China. From 1990 to 2019 Chinese oesophageal cancer due to alcohol consumption, the AAPC values for the number of deaths and the number of DALYs were 2.08% and 1.63%, respectively, which showed an increasing trend, and the change trend was statistically significant (P<0.05); the AAPC values for the standardised death rate and the rate of standardised DALYs were -0.92% and -1.23%, respectively, which showed a decreasing trend, and the change trend was statistically significant (P<0.05). The overall burden of disease for all age groups from 1990 to 2019 showed an increasing trend, with both their mortality and DALYs rates increasing with age, and the elderly population aged 55 years or older was the main group of the burden of disease. The grey prediction model showed that the overall standardised mortality rate and standardised DALYs rate declined to 2.94/100 000 and 67.94/100 000, respectively, by 2029, with a greater decline in females than in females. Conclusion Although the burden of disease for alcohol-induced oesophageal cancer in China has decreased over the past 30 years, it is still low compared with the overall burden of disease for oesophageal cancer, and the burden of disease for females is much higher than that for females. Focusing on prevention and treatment for males and the elderly remains a major problem for drinking-induced oesophageal cancer in China.

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